Miami Marlins
Washington Nationals
(-105/-115)-145
As the Washington Nationals prepare to face the Miami Marlins on September 14, 2024, both teams are looking to find some late-season momentum. The Nationals, currently sitting with a record of 66-81, are having a disappointing season, while the Marlins have struggled even more, posting a 55-93 record. This matchup marks the third game in their series, and the Nationals will be hoping to build on a recent win against Miami.
On the mound, the Nationals are set to start Patrick Corbin, who has had a tough year with a 5-13 record and a 5.60 ERA. Despite his struggles, Corbin has shown signs of potential improvement, as indicated by his 4.15 xFIP, suggesting he may have been a bit unlucky this season. Conversely, the Marlins will counter with Valente Bellozo, who has a solid 3.57 ERA but has also been fortunate, as shown by his higher 5.70 xFIP. This could be a telling matchup, as Corbin’s high groundball rate (48%) aligns well against a Marlins lineup that lacks power, ranking 4th least in MLB with just 133 home runs.
Offensively, the Nationals rank 22nd in MLB, struggling particularly with power, as they sit 29th in home runs. However, they lead the league in stolen bases, showcasing their speed on the base paths. Meanwhile, the Marlins are similarly ineffective, ranking 29th overall and 27th in home runs.
With a game total set at 8.5 runs and the Nationals favored at -145, their projected team total of 4.58 runs indicates a potential for scoring. Given the circumstances, the Nationals may have the upper hand in this matchup, especially with Corbin facing a Marlins offense that hasn’t been able to capitalize on pitching weaknesses effectively.
Betting Trends
- Patrick Corbin – Over/Under 6.5 Hits Allowed (+130/-165)Patrick Corbin has hit the Hits Allowed Over in 18 of his last 29 games (+6.00 Units / 16% ROI)