Learn How to Watch the Blue Jays vs Guardians Game – June 24, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays

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Cleveland Guardians

On June 24, 2025, the Cleveland Guardians will host the Toronto Blue Jays at Progressive Field in what marks the first game of their series. Both teams are hovering around .500 this season, with the Guardians sitting at 39-37 and the Blue Jays slightly ahead at 41-36. This matchup is crucial for both squads as they look to gain traction in a tight American League landscape.

The Guardians are projected to start Logan Allen, who has had a mixed season. He holds a 5-4 record with an ERA of 4.21, which is above average, but his 4.95 xFIP suggests that he may have been somewhat fortunate in his outings. Allen’s low strikeout rate of 17.1 K% could be a disadvantage against a Blue Jays offense that is the least strikeout-prone in MLB. Meanwhile, Eric Lauer, who is also a left-handed pitcher for the Blue Jays, has been effective with a 2.29 ERA, although his xFIP of 4.08 indicates he might regress moving forward.

The Guardians’ offense has struggled this season, ranking 26th in MLB, while the Blue Jays boast a more respectable 13th rank. Over the past week, the Guardians’ best hitter has managed to keep his average around .357, but overall, the team has not produced at the level necessary to compete consistently. In contrast, the Blue Jays’ top hitter has been hot, posting a .350 average and driving in eight RBIs in the same timeframe.

With both teams coming in with average projections for runs scored, the betting markets reflect a close contest, setting the moneyline at -110 for both teams. As they square off, the Guardians will need to leverage their home-field advantage and hope for a strong performance from Allen to steal a win against a solid Blue Jays lineup.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Eric Lauer – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-155/+120)
  Compared to the average starting pitcher, Eric Lauer has been given less leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an -16.3 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Andres Gimenez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-205/+155)
  Extreme flyball batters like Andres Gimenez tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Logan Allen.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 2nd-least strikeout-prone lineup in today’s games is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 18.8% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Logan Allen – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Logan Allen’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this season (57.6% vs. 51.7% last season) figures to work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Lane Thomas – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Lane Thomas has taken a step back with his Barrel%; his 7.4% rate last year has fallen off to 0% this season.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
  The Cleveland Guardians bullpen ranks as the 9th-best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+115/-145)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 41 of their last 69 games (+10.29 Units / 13% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 42 games (+9.45 Units / 20% ROI)
• Bo Bichette – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Bo Bichette has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+13.20 Units / 40% ROI)