Learn How to Watch the Blue Jays vs Guardians Game – June 24, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays

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Cleveland Guardians

The Cleveland Guardians will host the Toronto Blue Jays on June 24, 2025, in what marks the first game of their series. Both teams are hovering around the .500 mark, with the Guardians sitting at 39-37, while the Blue Jays hold a slightly better record of 41-36. This matchup is pivotal for both teams as they seek to gain traction in their respective divisions.

In their last outings, the Guardians secured a solid 3-0 victory against their opponent on June 22, showcasing a strong pitching performance. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays faced a setback, losing 4-2. Despite the Guardians’ recent success, their offense has struggled throughout the season, ranking 26th in MLB, which should give the Blue Jays an edge in this matchup.

Cleveland will send Logan Allen to the mound, who has had an average year with a 5-4 record and a 4.21 ERA. However, his performance metrics suggest he might be due for a downturn, as his 4.96 xFIP indicates he’s been somewhat fortunate. Allen’s low strikeout rate of 17.1% might play into the hands of the Blue Jays, who boast the lowest strikeout rate in the league.

Conversely, Toronto counters with Eric Lauer, who has been effective with a 2.29 ERA. Lauer’s projections suggest that he might also be overachieving, but his recent form includes a strong outing where he allowed just one earned run in five innings on June 18. With the Guardians’ offense struggling to produce, Lauer’s ability to maintain his strong performance could be key.

The Guardians’ moneyline is currently set at +105, indicating a close contest, while the Blue Jays sit at -125. This suggests that the Guardians might provide good value for bettors, especially given their recent win and the potential for Lauer to falter against their struggling lineup. With a game total of 9.0 runs, expect a competitive matchup as both teams vie for crucial victories in their chase for a playoff spot.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Eric Lauer – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+130/-165)
  Because flyball hitters hold a significant advantage over groundball pitchers, Eric Lauer and his 39.2% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a troublesome spot in today’s outing matching up with 2 opposing GB batters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Andres Gimenez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Extreme flyball batters like Andres Gimenez tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Logan Allen.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 2nd-least strikeout-prone lineup in today’s games is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 18.7% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Logan Allen – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Logan Allen’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this season (57.6% vs. 51.7% last season) figures to work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Lane Thomas – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Lane Thomas has taken a step back with his Barrel%; his 7.4% rate last year has fallen off to 0% this season.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
  The Cleveland Guardians bullpen ranks as the 9th-best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+115/-150)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 41 of their last 69 games (+10.29 Units / 13% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 42 games (+9.45 Units / 20% ROI)
• Bo Bichette – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Bo Bichette has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+13.20 Units / 40% ROI)