Learn About White Sox vs Orioles Picks and Betting Trends – Tuesday September 03, 2024

Chicago White Sox

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Baltimore Orioles

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to face the Chicago White Sox on September 3, 2024, they find themselves in the thick of a successful season at 80-59, while the White Sox struggle at a dismal 31-108. The Orioles are riding high on their offensive prowess, ranking 1st in MLB for home runs and 4th in overall offensive performance. In contrast, the White Sox sit at the bottom of the league in almost every offensive category, with their 30th ranking pointing to a particularly challenging year.

In their last matchup, the Orioles showcased their strength, solidifying their position in the playoff race. Cade Povich is slated to take the mound for the Orioles, despite his underwhelming 1-7 record and a high ERA of 6.58. Though Povich ranks as the 199th best starting pitcher in MLB, projections suggest a slight improvement due to his lower xFIP of 5.85. His high fly-ball rate could play in his favor against a White Sox offense that has struggled to generate power, hitting only 90 home runs this season.

On the other side, Nick Nastrini will start for the White Sox. With an 0-6 record and an ERA of 7.04, Nastrini’s 49% fly-ball rate aligns poorly against a potent Orioles lineup. This is compounded by both teams’ relatively high walk rates, but the Orioles rank 6th in the league for fewest walks taken, indicating Nastrini might not benefit from the control issues he has struggled with.

Given their strong offensive metrics and the matchup dynamics, the projections favor the Orioles heavily, especially with an implied team total of 5.66 runs, suggesting they could capitalize on Nastrini’s struggles. With a Game Total of 9.0 runs, this matchup promises to be an interesting one as the Orioles look to continue their ascent.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Nick Nastrini – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Nick Nastrini’s 2372-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 77th percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Lenyn Sosa – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Lenyn Sosa has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his batting average this year; his .214 rate is deflated compared to his .284 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  The Chicago White Sox bullpen grades out as the worst in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Cade Povich – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Cade Povich has recorded 14.2 outs per game per started this year, checking in at the 9th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Eloy Jimenez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-250/+190)
  Eloy Jimenez has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (89% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Anthony Santander pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.8% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Baltimore Orioles – Run Line -1.5 (-160)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 53 of their last 92 games (+18.05 Units / 16% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 32 of their last 59 away games (+5.75 Units / 9% ROI)
• Jackson Holliday – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+750/-1600)
  Jackson Holliday has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 30 games (+14.10 Units / 47% ROI)