Learn About Royals vs Astros Picks and Betting Trends – Monday May 12, 2025

Kansas City Royals

@

Houston Astros

On May 12, 2025, the Kansas City Royals will face off against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park in what marks the first game of their series. Both teams are in the midst of average seasons, with the Astros sitting at 20-19 and the Royals at 24-18. The Astros are coming off a strong performance, having shut out the Royals 6-0 in their previous game on May 11, while Kansas City is looking to bounce back after a loss.

Ryan Gusto, projected to start for Houston, has had a mixed season thus far. While his ERA of 2.93 indicates solid performance, advanced stats suggest he may have benefitted from some good fortune, as his 3.89 xFIP points to potential regression. Gusto has also struggled with allowing hits, projected to give up 4.3 on average today. In contrast, Michael Wacha, the Royals’ starter, has been slightly more consistent, boasting a 2.98 ERA but with a higher xFIP of 4.23. He comes off a strong outing where he pitched 7 innings with no earned runs.

Offensively, both teams have their challenges. The Astros rank 14th in MLB offensive performance, while the Royals are 26th, highlighting their struggles to generate runs. Houston’s best hitter has been a bright spot, recently achieving a .350 batting average over the past week. However, the Royals’ lineup is hampered by a lack of power, ranking dead last in home runs this season.

With the game’s total set at 8.0 runs, and the Astros holding a slight moneyline advantage at -125, this matchup is expected to be close. Houston’s solid bullpen ranks 14th in the league, providing an edge if the game is tight late. Overall, the Astros have the potential to capitalize on the Royals’ offensive inefficiencies, making them the team to watch as they seek to build on their recent success.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Wacha – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Given that groundball pitchers are least effective against flyball hitters, Michael Wacha (36.5% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this game with 3 FB hitters in Houston’s projected offense.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Bobby Witt Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Bobby Witt Jr. has made big strides with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 11.6% seasonal rate to 23.8% over the last week.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Vinnie Pasquantino – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Vinnie Pasquantino pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.4% — 95th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 9th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Houston Astros Insights

• Victor Caratini – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Victor Caratini’s average exit velocity has fallen off lately; his 87.1-mph seasonal average has fallen to 78.8-mph in the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Houston Astros have done a favorable job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-contacted balls. Their 16.6° mark is among the highest in MLB this year (#5 overall).
  Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+125/-160)
  The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 15 games at home (+8.45 Units / 44% ROI)
• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 32 games (+18.10 Units / 49% ROI)
• Maikel Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Maikel Garcia has hit the Hits Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+6.45 Units / 58% ROI)