Learn About Royals vs Angels Picks and Betting Trends – Wednesday September 24, 2025

Kansas City Royals

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Los Angeles Angels

On September 24, 2025, the Kansas City Royals will face the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium in the second game of their series. Both teams are hovering below the playoff bubble, with the Angels at 70-87, indicating a disappointing season, while the Royals sit at 79-78, reflecting an average year. In their previous encounter, the Royals edged out the Angels, heightening the stakes for today’s matchup.

Yusei Kikuchi is set to take the mound for the Angels. Despite his 4.05 ERA, advanced projections suggest he has been a bit fortunate this season, with a 4.56 xERA indicating potential regression. Kikuchi has also struggled with control, boasting a 9.7 BB%, which might not play well against a Royals lineup that ranks as the 2nd least patient in the league. With a projection to pitch 5.4 innings and allow 2.6 earned runs, Kikuchi will need to navigate the Royals’ lineup carefully.

On the other side, Stephen Kolek will start for Kansas City. His 3.54 ERA is solid, but projections hint that he too may have benefitted from luck. Kolek has also shown a tendency to generate ground balls, which could work to his advantage against an Angels offense that has the 4th most home runs in MLB, yet struggles to make consistent contact.

The Angels offense ranks 23rd overall, and their overall struggles at the plate are exacerbated by a high strikeout rate. Conversely, the Royals also find themselves near the bottom in home runs with a 25th rank, but they have managed to stay slightly more consistent in other areas, like batting average.

Betting markets have the Angels favored with a moneyline of -125, implying a close contest. As the Angels look to bounce back from last night’s loss, they will rely on their power bats to overcome a Royals team that has shown its vulnerabilities. With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs, expect a competitive matchup where the Angels’ aspirations hinge on Kikuchi’s ability to outlast Kolek and the effectiveness of their offensive lineup.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Stephen Kolek – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Stephen Kolek’s 2180-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 23rd percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under Total Bases
  Mike Yastrzemski has a good chance to have the upper hand against every reliever for the game’s entirety, since the bullpen of the Los Angeles Angels only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Bobby Witt Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Bobby Witt Jr. projects as the 8th-best hitter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Yusei Kikuchi – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to the average starting pitcher, Yusei Kikuchi has been given an above-average leash this year, tallying an additional 6.5 adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Mike Trout – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Hitters such as Mike Trout with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Stephen Kolek who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Los Angeles Angels (27.6% K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the most strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under Team Total
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 37 games (+16.55 Units / 38% ROI)
• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under Team Total
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 78 of their last 134 games (+16.80 Units / 11% ROI)
• Logan O’Hoppe – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Logan O’Hoppe has hit the Hits Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.00 Units / 23% ROI)