Kansas City Royals
Los Angeles Angels
(-110/-110)-110
On September 24, 2025, the Los Angeles Angels will host the Kansas City Royals at Angel Stadium for the second game of their series. The Angels, who currently hold a record of 70-87, are mired in a disappointing season and will look to rebound after losing yesterday’s game 8-4. Meanwhile, the Royals boast a record of 79-78, positioning themselves as an average team this season.
The matchup features Yusei Kikuchi, a left-handed pitcher for the Angels, against Stephen Kolek, a right-handed pitcher for the Royals. Kikuchi’s season has been characterized by inconsistency, evident in his 6-11 record and an ERA of 4.05, which indicates he has been somewhat lucky this year. Recent projections suggest he will pitch approximately 5.2 innings, allowing around 2.7 earned runs, though he has struggled with walks, posting a 9.7 BB%. This might not bode well given that the Royals are the 2nd least walk-heavy offense in MLB.
On the other side, Kolek has also been less than stellar, with a 5-6 record and a solid ERA of 3.54. Despite his below-average strikeout rate of 17.2%, he will benefit from facing an Angels lineup that leads the league in strikeouts. Kolek’s groundball tendencies could neutralize the Angels’ power, especially considering their strength in home runs—ranking 4th in MLB.
The Angels’ offense ranks 24th, with a particularly troubling batting average that places them 29th in the league. In contrast, the Royals’ offense, while not spectacular, has a slightly better ranking of 20th overall. Given the teams’ current trajectories, this matchup could lend the Royals an edge, especially with the current odds reflecting a close contest.
Kansas City Royals Insights
- Stephen Kolek – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)Stephen Kolek’s 2180-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 23rd percentile out of all starters.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Vinnie Pasquantino – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)Vinnie Pasquantino is likely to have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Los Angeles Angels has just 1 same-handed RP.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- Bobby Witt Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)Bobby Witt Jr. projects as the 8th-best hitter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Yusei Kikuchi – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)Compared to the average starting pitcher, Yusei Kikuchi has been given an above-average leash this year, tallying an additional 6.5 adjusted pitches each start.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Taylor Ward – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)Batters such as Taylor Ward with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Stephen Kolek who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Today’s version of the Angels projected offense is weaker than usual, as their .305 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .321 overall projected rate.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Betting Trends
- Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 37 games (+16.55 Units / 38% ROI)
- Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 78 of their last 134 games (+16.80 Units / 11% ROI)
- Maikel Garcia – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+180/-240)Maikel Garcia has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+6.55 Units / 18% ROI)