Pittsburgh Pirates
St. Louis Cardinals
(-110/-110)-150
The St. Louis Cardinals and the Pittsburgh Pirates face off on September 19, 2024, in the final game of their series, with St. Louis hosting at Busch Stadium. This matchup sees two National League Central foes with the Cardinals sitting at 77-75, indicative of an average season, while the Pirates are lagging behind at 71-81, reflecting a below-average campaign. Both teams have been eliminated from the division race but are playing for pride and future momentum. The Cardinals come into this game with a win from their last contest, having outslugged the Pirates 10-5 in an offensive showcase.
The Cardinals have the edge in this matchup, backed by their solid pitching and average offensive metrics. Erick Fedde takes the mound for St. Louis, coming off an uneventful start, but he has been a consistent presence with a commendable ERA of 3.45. However, his xFIP of 4.23 suggests he might not maintain this level of performance without some regression. Fedde’s tendency to induce flyballs could work in his favor against a Pirates lineup that struggles with power, ranking 26th in home runs.
In contrast, the Pirates will counter with Luis Ortiz, who has been inconsistent across his starts and bullpen appearances. While his ERA sits at 3.45, his xFIP of 4.76 indicates potential struggles ahead. The Cardinals’ offense, ranked 18th overall, should look to capitalize on Ortiz’s below-average projections in earned runs and strikeouts.
The leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, gives the Cardinals a 58% win probability, higher than their implied odds, suggesting value in backing St. Louis. The Pirates, projected to score an average of 4.12 runs, face an uphill battle against a Cardinals team with a balanced attack and a capable bullpen ranked 11th, compared to Pittsburgh’s 18th. With Paul Goldschmidt leading the way for St. Louis, the Cardinals will aim to clinch the series and maintain their momentum.
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- Luis Ortiz – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)Luis L. Ortiz projects to strikeout 3.6 bats in today’s outing, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
- Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)Oneil Cruz has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 97.5-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 95.4-mph average.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Pittsburgh Pirates batters as a group place 9th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when using their 30.5% rate of hitting their flyballs and line drives at least 100 mph.Explain: To hit a home run, the ball must be hit in the air and hit hard enough to clear the fence. This metric is a strong indicator of this kind of power.
St. Louis Cardinals Insights
- Erick Fedde – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Erick Fedde must realize this, because he has gone to his secondary pitches a lot this year: 68.9% of the time, checking in at the 96th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Pedro Pages – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)Pedro Pages has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs this year; his 18.8 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is considerably higher than his 11.5 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
- Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)Nolan Arenado pulls many of his flyballs (42.7% — 100th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 6th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games at home (+5.30 Units / 26% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 66 away games (+5.55 Units / 8% ROI)
- Erick Fedde – Over/Under 2.5 Earned Runs (+100/-130)Erick Fedde has hit the Earned Runs Under in 19 of his last 29 games (+8.70 Units / 26% ROI)