Learn About Player Prop Odds Breakdown for Athletics vs Pirates – Saturday September 20, 2025

Athletics

@

Pittsburgh Pirates

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to face off against the Oakland Athletics on September 20, 2025, hopes aren’t high for the Pirates, who are languishing in last place with a disappointing 65-89 record this season. Meanwhile, the Athletics sit below .500 at 73-81, but they’re not in contention for the playoffs either. This matchup is particularly intriguing as it is the second game of their series, with Oakland claiming a narrow 4-3 victory in the first game.

On the mound, the Pirates are set to start Bubba Chandler, who is having a rough season. Despite a decent outing in his last start on September 13, where he pitched 6 innings allowing just 1 earned run, his overall numbers reveal struggles. Chandler boasts a troubling 5.66 ERA and ranks as the 154th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. His projections suggest he will pitch around 4.8 innings, allowing an average of 2.6 earned runs along with 5.0 hits, which could spell trouble for a Pirates offense that ranks as the 30th worst in MLB.

Conversely, the Athletics will counter with Luis Morales, who is having a solid season with a 3.08 ERA. However, his underlying numbers indicate a degree of luck, as his xFIP sits at 4.40. Despite being labeled a below-average pitcher, Morales’ recent performance has been steady.

The Pirates’ lineup has struggled all year, ranking 30th in home runs and batting average, making it challenging to capitalize on any weaknesses Morales may display. With the game total set at 8.0 runs, and both teams’ implied totals at 4.00, it could be a low-scoring affair unless the Pirates can find a way to break out of their offensive slump. Betting markets see this as a close matchup, with both teams’ moneylines currently at -110.

Athletics Insights

• Luis Morales – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+125/-160)
  Compared to the average hurler, Luis Morales has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an -6.5 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• JJ Bleday – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  JJ Bleday is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Pittsburgh Pirates has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Athletics – 2H Moneyline
  The Athletics bullpen grades out as the worst in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Despite posting a .300 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Oneil Cruz has had some very poor luck given the .051 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .351.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• Henry Davis – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  In today’s game, Henry Davis is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 11th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 35.9% rate (91st percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 80 of their last 130 games (+24.85 Units / 16% ROI)
• Athletics – Moneyline (-110)
  The Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 44 away games (+14.85 Units / 33% ROI)
• Nick Kurtz – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+105/-135)
  Nick Kurtz has hit the Walks Over in 12 of his last 20 away games (+6.50 Units / 31% ROI)