Houston Astros
Los Angeles Dodgers
(-120/+100)-180
As the Los Angeles Dodgers prepare to host the Houston Astros on July 4, 2025, both teams come into this interleague matchup boasting impressive records. The Dodgers, at 56-32, sit firmly atop the National League West, showcasing the best offense in MLB with a 1st place ranking in team batting average and home runs. Meanwhile, the Astros hold a solid 52-35 record, positioning them well in the playoff race.
In their most recent game, the Astros secured a victory, but more notably, their pitcher managed to throw a complete game shutout, adding momentum to their visit to Dodger Stadium. Conversely, the Dodgers have been performing at a high level, benefitting from a deep lineup that has been particularly potent, making them strong favorites with a moneyline of -175.
On the mound, the Dodgers will turn to Ben Casparius. Despite being ranked as the #158 best starting pitcher in MLB, he possesses a respectable ERA of 3.97. His peripheral metrics suggest he has been a bit unlucky this season, with projections indicating he could improve. Casparius is known for his low walk rate, which could be challenged by the Astros’ disciplined approach at the plate.
Lance McCullers Jr. is slated to start for Houston. While the projections paint him as a below-average pitcher with a concerning ERA of 6.61, he has a tendency to strike out batters but also struggles with walks, which could be exploited by the patient Dodgers offense that ranks 2nd in walks this season.
Given the Dodgers’ offensive dominance and their strong bullpen, which ranks 8th in MLB, they are well-positioned to capitalize on any mistakes from McCullers. The Game Total sits at a high 9.0 runs, suggesting that oddsmakers anticipate a high-scoring affair, further favoring the Dodgers’ prolific lineup to shine at home.
Houston Astros Insights
- Houston Astros – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+150)Lance McCullers Jr. is an extreme groundball pitcher (47.2% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Dodger Stadium — the #2 HR venue among all major league stadiums — in today’s game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
- Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)Typically, batters like Isaac Paredes who hit a lot of flyballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Ben Casparius.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Placing 8th-steepest in the game this year, Houston Astros batters as a unit have compiled a 14.6° launch angle on their highest exit velocity balls (a reliable stat to evaluate power ability).Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Ben Casparius – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-150/+120)With 7 bats who share the same handedness in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Ben Casparius should benefit from owning the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Tommy Edman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Over the past two weeks, Tommy Edman’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.1% down to 0%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Los Angeles Dodgers bats as a group grade out 3rd- in the league for power this year when using their 10.5% Barrel%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-120/+100)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 46 games at home (+9.75 Units / 19% ROI)
- Houston Astros – Moneyline (+155)The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 49 games (+14.95 Units / 23% ROI)
- Michael Conforto – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+160/-205)Michael Conforto has hit the Walks Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 47% ROI)