Learn About Cardinals vs Braves Picks and Betting Trends – Wednesday April 23, 2025

St. Louis Cardinals

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Atlanta Braves

As the Atlanta Braves and St. Louis Cardinals prepare for their clash on April 23, 2025, both teams find themselves struggling at the bottom of the National League standings. The Braves hold a record of 9-14, while the Cardinals are slightly ahead at 10-14. This matchup comes on the heels of a decisive victory for the Cardinals, who trounced the Braves 10-4 in their last outing on April 22.

Tonight’s game features Bryce Elder for the Braves and Miles Mikolas for the Cardinals. Elder, despite being ranked as the 150th best starting pitcher in MLB, has an unflattering ERA of 7.20 this season. However, his 4.34 xFIP indicates he may be due for a turnaround. Elder’s average projection of 5.6 innings pitched and 2.7 earned runs allowed suggests he can keep the Braves competitive if he can minimize damage.

On the other side, Mikolas has struggled even more, carrying an ERA of 7.64 and a Power Rankings placement among the worst pitchers in the league. He projects to pitch 5.1 innings while allowing an average of 3.1 earned runs, which is concerning for a Cardinals team that relies heavily on their offense. While the Cardinals rank as the 5th best offense in MLB, their pitching staff has not matched that strength, ranking 24th in the league.

The Braves’ offense has shown flashes of power, ranking 8th in home runs, but their overall performance has been inconsistent. With a high game total of 9.0 runs indicated for this matchup, there’s potential for a high-scoring affair. The Braves are favored with a moneyline of -165, indicating a strong belief that they can bounce back from their recent loss. With both pitchers struggling, expect an intriguing game that could tilt in favor of the Braves if Elder can outperform his recent outings.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Miles Mikolas – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Miles Mikolas’s higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this year (56.6% vs. 49% last season) ought to work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Nolan Gorman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Extreme groundball bats like Nolan Gorman usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Bryce Elder.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Today, Nolan Arenado is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 2nd-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 41.7% rate (99th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Bryce Elder – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Bryce Elder’s 90.3-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season ranks in the 8th percentile among all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jarred Kelenic – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Jarred Kelenic has a ton of pop (76th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a guarantee (27.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Miles Mikolas doesn’t generate many whiffs (21st percentile K%) — great news for Kelenic.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Today’s version of the Braves projected batting order is missing some of their usual firepower, as their .326 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .338 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 8 games (+2.80 Units / 32% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.80 Units / 26% ROI)
• Austin Riley – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+140/-185)
  Austin Riley has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 10 games at home (+8.75 Units / 88% ROI)