New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox
(-110/-110)+145
The Boston Red Sox will host the New York Yankees at Fenway Park on June 14, 2025, in what promises to be an engaging American League East matchup. The Yankees enter this game riding high on a great season with a record of 42-26, while the Red Sox have had a more average performance at 35-36. Last night, the Yankees edged the Red Sox in a tightly contested series opener, setting the stage for another exciting battle.
On the mound, Boston’s Hunter Dobbins is projected to start after a mixed season, ranking 165th among MLB starting pitchers. While Dobbins has a solid 3-1 record, his 4.20 ERA suggests he may struggle against the Yankees’ powerful offense, which ranks 1st in the league. In contrast, New York will counter with Carlos Rodon, a left-handed ace, who has an impressive 2.87 ERA and ranks 57th among starters. Rodon has been strong this season, boasting an 8-4 record and an ability to strike out hitters at a 31.0% rate. His strength could exploit the Red Sox’s weaknesses, as they rank 2nd in MLB for team strikeouts.
Offensively, the Red Sox have been productive, standing as the 6th best offense in the league, bolstered by their 7th best ranking in home runs. However, they face a tough challenge against a Yankees lineup that excels in both batting average and power. The projections suggest a favorable outcome for the Yankees, with a high team total of 4.75 runs, while the Red Sox’s projection is lower at 3.75 runs.
New York Yankees Insights
- Carlos Rodon – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)Carlos Rodon has utilized his four-seam fastball 8.3% less often this year (41.1%) than he did last season (49.4%).Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
- Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)Aaron Judge has made substantial gains with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 24.5% seasonal rate to 32.1% in the last two weeks’ worth of games.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- New York Yankees – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Yankees’ bullpen grades out as the 4th-best out of all MLB teams.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Boston Red Sox Insights
- Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (+145)The Boston Red Sox infield defense profiles as the 2nd-best among all the teams playing today.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Rafael Devers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)Rafael Devers will probably have the upper hand against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the New York Yankees only has 1 same-handed RP.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)Jarren Duran has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.3%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them out towards MLB’s shallowest LF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Boston Red Sox – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-105/-125)The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 29 games at home (+5.70 Units / 17% ROI)
- New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-195)The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 51 games (+9.05 Units / 11% ROI)
- Rob Refsnyder – Over/Under 0.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-160/+125)Rob Refsnyder has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.75 Units / 37% ROI)