Injury Report for Mariners vs Rangers – Saturday, May 3rd, 2025

Seattle Mariners

@

Texas Rangers

As the Texas Rangers prepare to face off against the Seattle Mariners on May 3, 2025, at Globe Life Field, the stakes are high. The Rangers are coming off a rough 13-1 loss to the Mariners just a day prior, marking a tough start to this series. Currently, the Mariners sit atop the American League West with a strong 19-12 record, while the Rangers are struggling at 16-17, placing them in a below-average position this season.

On the mound, the Rangers will send out Patrick Corbin, who, despite being ranked as the 299th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, has a respectable 3.79 ERA this season. However, projections indicate that he may be due for a downturn, as his 4.63 FIP suggests he has had some luck on his side. Corbin’s average outing is projected at 5.2 innings with 2.9 earned runs allowed, which could spell trouble against a potent Mariners lineup.

Luis Castillo, the Mariners’ starter, is expected to be a tougher challenge. Ranked 78th among starting pitchers, he boasts a solid 3.62 ERA and is coming off a strong performance where he pitched 6 innings with no earned runs. Castillo’s ability to limit walks, despite being a high-walk pitcher himself, could exploit the Rangers’ impatience at the plate—ranking 2nd in the league for the least walks drawn.

With the Mariners’ offense ranked 4th in MLB and the Rangers’ offense languishing at 27th, the matchup heavily favors Seattle. The projections suggest a high implied team total for the Mariners at 4.45 runs, while the Rangers sit at a modest 4.05. For bettors, the Mariners appear to have the upper hand in this crucial matchup.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Luis F. Castillo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Luis Castillo’s fastball velocity has dropped 1.4 mph this year (94.1 mph) below where it was last year (95.5 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Mitch Garver – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Batters such as Mitch Garver with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Patrick Corbin who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Seattle Mariners – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Seattle Mariners’ bullpen projects as the 10th-worst out of all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Patrick Corbin – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Given that flyball pitchers are hit hardest by groundball hitters, Patrick Corbin (44.4% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged today with 2 GB hitters in Seattle’s projected offense.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Josh H. Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Josh Smith has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (50% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Josh Jung – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Josh Jung hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (41.2% — 100th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 7th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 16 games at home (+9.70 Units / 54% ROI)
• Seattle Mariners – Moneyline (-130)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 21 games (+9.85 Units / 34% ROI)
• Adolis Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+130/-170)
  Adolis Garcia has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+7.65 Units / 24% ROI)