Injury Report for Cardinals vs Reds – Monday, April 28th, 2025

St. Louis Cardinals

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Cincinnati Reds

On April 28, 2025, the Cincinnati Reds will host the St. Louis Cardinals at Great American Ball Park in a pivotal National League Central matchup. The Reds enter this game with a record of 15-13, showcasing an above-average season thus far, while the Cardinals sit at 12-16, struggling to find their footing. Both teams are looking to build momentum after contrasting results in their last outings—Cincinnati secured a convincing 8-1 victory, while St. Louis faced a tough 7-1 defeat.

Cincinnati’s Nick Martinez is projected to take the mound, bringing a mixed bag of performance to the game. Despite being ranked as the 88th best starting pitcher in MLB, his 5.40 ERA suggests he has faced some tough luck this season. Still, his 4.27 xFIP indicates he could be poised for improvement. Martinez’s last start was encouraging, where he pitched six innings, allowing only two earned runs.

On the other side, Andre Pallante will toe the rubber for St. Louis. Although his 4.05 ERA is above average, his advanced metrics suggest he may have been a bit fortunate, as his 4.69 xERA indicates room for regression. Pallante’s last outing was less than stellar, yielding four earned runs in just four innings.

Offensively, the Reds rank 6th in MLB, boasting a powerful lineup that is particularly adept at getting on base. The Cardinals, while ranked 8th overall, struggle with power, sitting at 20th in home runs. Given the Reds’ strong batting average and the projections favoring them at an implied team total of 4.86 runs, they appear to have the edge in this contest. With their recent form and home advantage, Cincinnati looks to capitalize on St. Louis’s struggles as they seek to solidify their position in the standings.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+100)
  Andre Pallante is an extreme groundball pitcher (59.8% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Great American Ball Park — the #1 HR venue in the majors — in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Brendan Donovan – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Over the last 7 days, Brendan Donovan’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Nolan Arenado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.8% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 7th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Nick Martinez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Nick Martinez has gone to his slider 7.1% more often this year (12.3%) than he did last year (5.2%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Jake Fraley – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Jake Fraley’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 89.1-mph EV last year has fallen to 87-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected offense for the Cincinnati Reds in today’s game has an estimated true talent wOBA of .310, which is quite a bit worse than their actual wOBA of .323 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Cincinnati Reds – Moneyline (-120)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.45 Units / 28% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 27 games (+1.75 Units / 6% ROI)
• Jordan Walker – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Jordan Walker has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+7.75 Units / 96% ROI)