Injury Report for Athletics vs Angels – Thursday, July 25th, 2024

Oakland Athletics

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Los Angeles Angels

As the Los Angeles Angels and the Oakland Athletics prepare to square off on July 25, 2024, both teams find themselves at the bottom of the American League West standings. The Angels, with a record of 45-57, are having a rough season, while the Athletics, at 41-63, are struggling mightily. This matchup at Angel Stadium marks the first game of the series, with both teams looking to gain some momentum.

The Angels will send Kenny Rosenberg to the mound. Despite having an ERA of 6.30###101, Rosenberg’s underlying metrics, such as his 5.32 xFIP, suggest he’s been somewhat unlucky and might fare better moving forward. However, it’s worth noting that he has yet to start a game this season, making two appearances out of the bullpen. In his last outing on September 23, 2023, Rosenberg pitched effectively, going five innings without allowing an earned run.

Oakland counters with Ross Stripling, who has started 11 games this season but has been largely ineffective, evidenced by his 5.82 ERA. Like Rosenberg, Stripling’s xFIP of 4.45 indicates he has also been unlucky. His last start on May 24, 2024, was particularly rough, allowing six earned runs over four innings. Stripling’s 1-9 win/loss record underscores his struggles this year.

Offensively, both teams have their challenges. The Angels rank 24th in MLB in overall offense, though they do rank 7th in stolen bases, showing some ability to create runs on the base paths. Zach Neto has been their standout performer, contributing 13 home runs and 17 stolen bases over 99 games. Meanwhile, Nolan Schanuel has been hot over the last week, hitting .412 with a 1.088 OPS.

On the other side, the Athletics rank 18th in overall offense but excel in power, sitting 4th in home runs. Brent Rooker has been their best hitter, boasting a .290 batting average and a .943 OPS with 23 home runs. Lawrence Butler has also been on fire recently, hitting .591 with a 1.758 OPS over the last week.

Both teams’ bullpens rank near the bottom of MLB, with the Angels at 25th and the Athletics at 22nd according to the advanced-stat Power Rankings. Given the high implied total of 9.5 runs for this game, expect plenty of scoring opportunities.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Angels a slight edge with a 53% win probability, slightly higher than the implied odds. Given the close nature of this matchup and the high projected run totals, this game could very well be decided by which team’s bullpen can hang on late.

Oakland Athletics Insights

• Ross Stripling – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Ross Stripling to be on a bit of a short leash today, projecting a maximum of 70 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Brent Rooker has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 96.9-mph average to last season’s 94.9-mph average.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Oakland Athletics – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Oakland Athletics’ bullpen grades out as the 9th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Kenny Rosenberg – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-170/+135)
  When estimating his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Kenny Rosenberg in the 25th percentile among all starting pitchers in MLB.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Taylor Ward – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Taylor Ward has had some very poor luck with his wOBA this year; his .308 rate is considerably lower than his .347 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Kevin Pillar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  Kevin Pillar pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.2% — 92nd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 10th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 58 of their last 101 games (+12.50 Units / 10% ROI)
• Oakland Athletics – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Oakland Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 38 away games (+6.55 Units / 14% ROI)
• Taylor Ward – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Taylor Ward has hit the Total Bases Under in 31 of his last 46 games (+14.95 Units / 23% ROI)