Injury Report for Astros vs Rangers – Monday, August 5th, 2024

Houston Astros

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Texas Rangers

As the Texas Rangers prepare to host the Houston Astros on August 5, 2024, both teams find themselves in the middle of a tightly contested American League West matchup. The Rangers, currently at 53-59, are having a below-average season, while the Astros sit at 57-54, marking an average performance thus far. This game is critical as both teams look to gain momentum in a crucial series, especially after the Rangers’ disappointing 7-2 loss to the Boston Red Sox in their last outing, and the Astros’ narrow 1-0 defeat to the Tampa Bay Rays.

On the mound, the Rangers are projected to start Andrew Heaney, whose struggles have been well-documented. Heaney’s 4-11 record and 4.12 ERA indicate a tough year, and his recent performance against the Red Sox, where he allowed 6 earned runs in just 4 innings, raises concerns. Meanwhile, Hunter Brown of the Astros boasts a 9-7 record with a slightly better 4.11 ERA and is viewed as a more reliable option, having ranked as the 50th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings.

Offensively, the Astros have the edge, currently ranking 10th in MLB, driven by Yordan Alvarez’s strong contributions. The projections suggest that the Astros will average 4.41 runs, slightly ahead of the Rangers’ projected 4.34 runs. While both bullpens are among the best in the league, the Rangers’ bullpen ranks 4th compared to the Astros’ 5th, highlighting the potential for a low-scoring affair.

Given the circumstances, the Rangers may have a slight edge based on their projected win probability of 52% against the Astros’ 48%. With both teams eager to turn their recent performances around, this matchup promises to be a closely contested battle.

Houston Astros Insights

• Hunter Brown – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Hunter Brown has used his off-speed and breaking pitches 5.3% less often this year (48.6%) than he did last season (53.9%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Chas McCormick – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Chas McCormick’s average exit velocity has decreased in recent games; his 86-mph seasonal figure has fallen off to 80.5-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Houston Astros – Moneyline (-110)
  The Houston Astros projected batting order ranks as the 4th-best of all teams today in terms of overall batting skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Andrew Heaney – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Andrew Heaney’s 90.9-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a significant 1-mph drop off from last season’s 91.9-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Nate Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)
  Nathaniel Lowe is an extreme groundball hitter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Houston (#3-best of all teams on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Texas Rangers – 2H Moneyline
  The Texas Rangers bullpen profiles as the 4th-best in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-160/+125)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 63 games (+11.15 Units / 15% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 60 of their last 105 games (+12.60 Units / 11% ROI)
• Mauricio Dubon – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-115/-115)
  Mauricio Dubon has hit the Singles Under in his last 9 games (+9.20 Units / 96% ROI)