Injury Report for Astros vs Orioles – Sunday, August 24th, 2025

Houston Astros

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Baltimore Orioles

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to host the Houston Astros on August 24, 2025, they aim to build on their recent form while the stakes are high in this matchup. The Orioles come into the game with a record of 59-70, struggling this season, whereas the Astros sit at 72-58, marking their performance as strong. The last game between these teams saw the Orioles suffer a loss, and both teams will look to shift momentum in this crucial fourth game of the series.

Projected starters Trevor Rogers for the Orioles and Spencer Arrighetti for the Astros present a stark contrast in performance. Rogers, ranked as the 90th best starting pitcher in MLB, boasts an impressive Win/Loss record of 6-2 with a stellar ERA of 1.41 this year, signaling an above-average season. However, advanced projections indicate that he has been a bit lucky, suggesting a regression may be in the cards. On the other hand, Arrighetti has had a rough go, with a 1-4 record and an alarming ERA of 6.94, making him one of the least effective pitchers this season.

Offensively, the Astros have a slight edge, ranking 13th overall but struggling with home runs at 17th. The Orioles’ offense, while ranking 20th overall, is buoyed by their ability to generate home runs, placing them 11th in that category. The projections forecast an average game total of 9.0 runs, with the Orioles favored at -140, implying a team total of 4.81 runs. Given Rogers’ capabilities and the Orioles’ home-field advantage, they may be poised to outperform their implied win probability in this contest.

Houston Astros Insights

• Spencer Arrighetti – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+115/-145)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Spencer Arrighetti is expected to tally an average of 15.2 outs in this matchup.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Mauricio Dubon – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Mauricio Dubon has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.7-mph dropping to 80.3-mph over the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Houston Astros – 2H Moneyline
  The Houston Astros bullpen grades out as the 4th-worst in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Trevor Rogers – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Trevor Rogers has utilized his sinker 7.9% less often this year (16%) than he did last year (23.9%).
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker less often will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Ryan Mountcastle – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (25.5) suggests that Ryan Mountcastle has suffered from bad luck this year with his 9.5 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Ryan Mountcastle – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Ryan Mountcastle has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of baseball’s shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 64 of their last 115 games (+11.38 Units / 9% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 70 of their last 123 games (+10.95 Units / 7% ROI)
• Jeremiah Jackson – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-135/+105)
  Jeremiah Jackson has hit the Singles Over in his last 7 games (+7.90 Units / 101% ROI)