Injuries Update for Royals vs Tigers – April 19, 2025

Kansas City Royals

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Detroit Tigers

As the Detroit Tigers prepare to host the Kansas City Royals on April 19, 2025, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions in the American League Central. The Tigers currently hold a record of 12-8, while the Royals are struggling at 8-13. In their latest matchup, the Tigers secured a convincing victory, further solidifying their status as a competitive team this season.

Detroit is projected to start Casey Mize, a right-handed pitcher who has shown flashes of brilliance with a 2-1 record and an impressive 2.60 ERA. Despite being ranked as the 128th best starting pitcher in MLB, Mize’s underlying metrics suggest he may have been fortunate so far, with a 4.38 xFIP indicating potential regression. He faces a Royals lineup that has managed to hit only 10 home runs this season, the fewest in MLB, which could play to Mize’s advantage as a high-flyball pitcher.

On the other side, Kansas City will counter with Seth Lugo, who comes in with a 1-2 record and a 3.86 ERA. Lugo’s performance has been more stable, with projections showing he can pitch around 6.0 innings while allowing 2.8 earned runs on average. However, he faces a Tigers offense that ranks 9th in MLB, making it a challenging outing for him.

The projections suggest a close contest, with the Tigers holding a slight edge in the betting markets. With their strong bullpen ranked 7th in MLB, Detroit has the tools to maintain their momentum against a Royals team that has struggled overall. As the game total sits at an average 8.0 runs, fans can expect a tightly contested matchup with significant implications for both teams as they navigate through the season.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Seth Lugo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Seth Lugo has gone to his cutter 5.8% more often this season (14%) than he did last year (8.2%).
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Michael Massey – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Michael Massey has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (89% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Kansas City Royals – 2H Moneyline
  The Kansas City Royals bullpen projects as the 7th-worst in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Detroit Tigers – Moneyline (-135)
  The Detroit Tigers infield defense projects as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Colt Keith – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Colt Keith’s average exit velocity has fallen off this season; his 87.8-mph EV last year has lowered to 80.8-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Trey Sweeney – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  In today’s matchup, Trey Sweeney is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 2nd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.8% rate (96th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.85 Units / 37% ROI)
• Trey Sweeney – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+135/-170)
  Trey Sweeney has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+9.60 Units / 28% ROI)