Injuries Update for Red Sox vs Yankees - October 02, 2025

+130O/U: 7.5
(+100/-120)-150

Connelly Early – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
As it relates to his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Connelly Early in the 90th percentile among all SPs in baseball.
Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
Nate Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
Nathaniel Lowe may have an edge against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the New York Yankees has just 1 same-handed RP.
Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 3rd-most strikeout-prone lineup today is the Boston Red Sox with a 22.4% underlying K%.
Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Cam Schlittler – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
Out of all starters, Cameron Schlittler’s fastball velocity of 97.4 mph is in the 98th percentile this year.
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
Boston’s #1-ranked outfield defense on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Aaron Judge, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
The 12% Barrel% of the New York Yankees ranks them as the #1 offense in MLB this year by this stat.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-145)
The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 45 of their last 75 games (+18.65 Units / 16% ROI)
Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (+130)
The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 59 of their last 98 games (+16.45 Units / 12% ROI)
Amed Rosario – Over/Under 0.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-155/+120)
Amed Rosario has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+6.60 Units / 36% ROI)

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