Injuries Update for Nationals vs Braves – September 24, 2025

Washington Nationals

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Atlanta Braves

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to host the Washington Nationals on September 24, 2025, both teams come into the matchup with disappointing seasons. The Braves sit at 75-83, while the Nationals trail with a record of 64-94. In their last game, the Braves suffered a significant loss, which puts even more pressure on them to perform well in front of their home crowd at Truist Park.

The Braves are projected to start Bryce Elder, a right-handed pitcher with an 8-10 record and a troubling 5.36 ERA this season. However, his 4.08 xFIP suggests he might have been a bit unlucky and could improve. Elder’s groundball rate of 49% aligns well against a Nationals offense that has struggled with power, ranking 27th in home runs this season with just 149. On the other hand, Andrew Alvarez is projected to start for the Nationals. Although his 2.84 ERA looks impressive, he’s one of the worst pitchers in baseball according to metrics.

The Braves offense ranks 13th overall, suggesting they have the talent to score, but their 27th rank in stolen bases highlights their challenges on the base paths. Meanwhile, the Nationals rank 25th in overall offensive production and have a strong 10th ranking in stolen bases—an area where they might exploit the Braves’ weaknesses.

Betting lines currently favor the Braves, who are -185, indicating an implied win probability of 63%. Given the matchup dynamics, the Braves could bounce back from their recent struggles, especially with their offense facing off against a pitcher who has been fortunate rather than effective. The Game Total is set at 9.0 runs, hinting at expectations for a high-scoring affair.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Andrew Alvarez – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to the average pitcher, Andrew Alvarez has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an -10.2 fewer adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Jacob Young – Over/Under Total Bases
  Jacob Young has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.8-mph dropping to 76.3-mph over the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals’ bullpen projects as the 9th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Bryce Elder – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Bryce Elder has used his fastball a lot this year, though: 54.3% of the time, grading out in the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Extreme flyball batters like Michael Harris II are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Andrew Alvarez.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Ronald Acuna Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Ronald Acuna Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 94th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.