Injuries Update for Mets vs Marlins – March 31, 2025

New York Mets

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Miami Marlins

As the Miami Marlins prepare to face off against the New York Mets on March 31, 2025, both teams are looking to capitalize on their current form, though their records suggest divergent fortunes. The Marlins boast a solid 3-1 record this season and have outperformed expectations early on, while the Mets are struggling at 1-2, indicating a rough start to the year.

In their last outing, the Mets suffered a setback, falling to the Marlins in a tightly contested game, which continues to raise questions about their season. Miami’s Cal Quantrill is projected to take the mound, but his Power Rankings position as the #394 best starting pitcher, combined with his projections to allow 2.8 earned runs over 4.7 innings pitched, suggests he may struggle against a competitive Mets offense that ranks 9th overall in MLB. Furthermore, Quantrill’s tendency to allow hits and walks could spell trouble against a capable lineup.

Conversely, the Mets will counter with David Peterson, who, despite being ranked among the lower tier of pitchers as well, is expected to pitch an average of 5.3 innings while allowing 2.4 earned runs. Peterson’s performance thus far may elevate slightly above expectation, especially given his recent projection.

Notably, the Marlins’ offense ranks 27th in MLB, a concerning statistic as they face a Mets team with a much stronger offensive showing so far this season. Given the current odds, with the Marlins listed as +155 underdogs and the Mets favored at -180, the betting lines suggest a potential undervaluation of the Mets’ offensive capabilities. With an implied team total of 4.82 runs for New York, they are expected to capitalize on their hitting prowess, aiming to right their season against a Marlins team that looks to maintain their momentum.

New York Mets Insights

• David Peterson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  David Peterson’s 2140-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season is in the 23rd percentile out of all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jose Siri – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Jose Siri has big-time HR ability (95th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a guarantee (36.4% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Cal Quantrill doesn’t generate many whiffs (1st percentile K%) — great news for Siri.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• The New York Mets have been the 10th-luckiest offense in the game since the start of last season, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Cal Quantrill – Over/Under 13.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Cal Quantrill to be on a pitch count in today’s game, projecting a maximum of 70 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Since the start of last season, the hardest ball Xavier Edwards has hit reached a maximum exit velocity of 102.7 mph (a reliable metric to study power), placing in the 0th percentile.
  Explain: If a player can hit the ball hard even once, it has great predictive power over his ability to do it again. If he’s never hit the ball hard, it’s a sign of a lack of power.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins’ bullpen projects as the worst out of all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 46 games at home (+19.00 Units / 37% ROI)
• New York Mets – Moneyline (-190)
  The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 68 of their last 110 games (+21.05 Units / 15% ROI)
• Otto Lopez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Otto Lopez has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 25 games at home (+5.80 Units / 19% ROI)