Injuries Update for Marlins vs Rays – July 30, 2024

Miami Marlins

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Tampa Bay Rays

As we head into this Interleague matchup on July 30, 2024, the Tampa Bay Rays will host the Miami Marlins at Tropicana Field. The Rays are having an average season with a 54-52 record, while the Marlins are struggling at 39-67. Tampa Bay looks to bolster their playoff chances against a Marlins team that’s been having a rough year.

The Rays are favored in this game with a moneyline of -165, translating to an implied win probability of 60%. Jeffrey Springs, Tampa Bay’s left-handed pitcher, will take the mound. Springs ranks as the 64th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, positioning him as an above-average starter. He’s projected to pitch an average of 5.7 innings, allowing 2.1 earned runs and striking out 5.7 batters. While his walks and hits projections aren’t stellar, he’s expected to keep the Marlins’ offense in check.

Miami’s Edward Cabrera will be starting for the Marlins. Cabrera has had a tough season, sporting a dismal 7.04 ERA over nine starts. However, his 3.91 xFIP indicates he’s been unlucky and could perform better moving forward. Despite his struggles, Cabrera is projected to strike out 6.1 batters in an average of 4.9 innings. The Marlins’ offense, ranked 29th in MLB, has been one of the worst this season, which could make it easier for Springs to shine.

Offensively, the Rays are not much better, ranking 23rd overall. However, they have a bright spot in Brandon Lowe, who has been on fire over the last week. Lowe has posted a .474 batting average with 9 hits, 4 runs, and a 1.565 OPS over his last six games. Meanwhile, Josh Bell has been the standout for the Marlins, hitting .440 with 11 hits, 5 runs, and a 1.460 OPS in the same span.

The game total is set at a low 7.5 runs, reflecting the tepid offensive projections for both teams. Given the Rays’ stronger pitching and marginally better offense, they’re rightly favored. Tampa Bay will aim to capitalize on Cabrera’s struggles and secure a crucial win in their pursuit of a playoff spot.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Edward Cabrera – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Edward Cabrera’s higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this year (70% compared to 63.1% last season) figures to work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Nick Gordon – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Nick Gordon has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.3-mph dropping to 79-mph in the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Miami Marlins have been the 5th-unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress going forward
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Jeffrey Springs – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-180/+140)
  Among all SPs, Jeffrey Springs’s fastball velocity of 91 mph is in the 20th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jose Siri – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.331) may lead us to conclude that Jose Siri has experienced some negative variance this year with his .285 actual wOBA.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Tampa Bay’s 87.9-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the worst in the game: #28 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+125/-160)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 32 of their last 51 games at home (+11.60 Units / 19% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 29 away games (+10.50 Units / 31% ROI)
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+750/-1600)
  Yandy Diaz has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 24 games (+10.20 Units / 43% ROI)