Injuries Update for Marlins vs Mets – April 08, 2025

Miami Marlins

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New York Mets

On April 8, 2025, the New York Mets will host the Miami Marlins at Citi Field for the second game of their series. The Mets are currently enjoying a strong season, boasting a 7-3 record, while the Marlins sit at a mediocre 5-5. The Mets are coming off an impressive victory against the Marlins yesterday, which adds to their momentum.

Clay Holmes is projected to take the mound for the Mets, and he has shown flashes of brilliance this season despite a win/loss record of 0-1. With an excellent ERA of 2.89, Holmes ranks as the 27th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. However, his 4.01 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit lucky so far. He projects to pitch around 6.1 innings today, allowing 1.6 earned runs and striking out 6.2 batters, providing a solid foundation for the Mets.

On the other side, the Marlins will counter with Connor Gillispie, who is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB based on the advanced stats. His ERA of 3.60 is decent, but his 4.43 xFIP indicates he, too, has had some fortune on his side. Gillispie is projected to pitch only 4.5 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs while striking out just 4.2 batters, which could spell trouble for the Marlins.

Offensively, both teams have struggled, with the Mets ranking 23rd in MLB in overall offense and the Marlins slightly better at 22nd. The Mets’ lineup features a top hitter who has been on a tear lately, boasting a .364 batting average over the past week. Meanwhile, the Marlins’ best hitter has also been productive, but their overall offensive metrics leave much to be desired.

With the Mets favored heavily with a moneyline of -275, their high implied team total of 4.34 runs reflects confidence in their ability to capitalize on Gillispie’s shortcomings. The low game total of 7.0 runs suggests a tightly contested matchup, but the Mets’ advantage on the mound gives them the edge heading into this game.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+235)
  The Miami Marlins infield defense profiles as the 5th-worst among every team today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Griffin Conine – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
  Griffin Conine has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (63% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Miami Marlins have 4 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kyle Stowers, Matt Mervis, Griffin Conine, Derek Hill).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

New York Mets Insights

• Clay Holmes – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Given that flyball batters perform worse against flyball pitchers, Clay Holmes (59.3% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this game with 4 FB hitters in the opposition’s projected offense.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brandon Nimmo has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Mets bullpen profiles as the 8th-worst in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Moneyline (-280)
  The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 75 of their last 124 games (+20.45 Units / 13% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 78 away games (+13.35 Units / 16% ROI)
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-110/-120)
  Mark Vientos has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.05 Units / 77% ROI)