Injuries Update for Mariners vs Tigers – July 11, 2025

Seattle Mariners

@

Detroit Tigers

On July 11, 2025, the Detroit Tigers will host the Seattle Mariners for the first game of their series at Comerica Park. The Tigers are enjoying a stellar season with a record of 59-35, currently holding strong in the playoff race. Meanwhile, the Mariners sit at 48-45, having an above-average season but not in contention for the division title. In their last outings, the Tigers suffered a 7-3 defeat, while the Mariners fell short in a close 6-5 game.

Detroit’s ace, Tarik Skubal, is projected to take the mound, and he’s been nothing short of elite this season. With a 10-2 record and an impressive 2.02 ERA, Skubal ranks as the 1st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. His ability to strike out batters (8.1 projected strikeouts today) will be crucial against a Mariners lineup that ranks 6th in the league for strikeouts. The projections indicate that Skubal may allow just 1.9 earned runs, highlighting his dominance.

On the other side, Seattle will counter with Luis Castillo, who has had a solid season but is considered an average pitcher with a 3.31 ERA and a 5-5 record. Castillo’s xFIP of 4.18 suggests he has been somewhat fortunate this year, which could be a concern against a powerful Tigers offense that ranks 6th overall and boasts a top-10 batting average.

With a low Game Total of 7.0 runs and the Tigers favored heavily with a moneyline of -245, the betting landscape favors Detroit. They are projected to score around 4.24 runs, while the Mariners are expected to struggle with a low implied total of 2.76 runs. This matchup presents an opportunity for the Tigers to capitalize on their strong pitching and potent offense as they look to bounce back and assert their dominance at home.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Luis Castillo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Luis Castillo’s 94.5-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a notable 1-mph fall off from last year’s 95.5-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+110)
  Jorge Polanco has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (92% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Seattle Mariners have been the 6th-luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Tarik Skubal – Over/Under 8.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Given that groundball pitchers are least effective against flyball hitters, Tarik Skubal (44.1% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in today’s game with 4 FB hitters in Seattle’s projected batting order.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Zach McKinstry – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Zach McKinstry’s average exit velocity has dropped off this year; his 88-mph average last season has dropped to 85.9-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Detroit Tigers – 2H Moneyline
  The Detroit Tigers bullpen ranks as the 7th-best in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-320)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 51 of their last 91 games (+15.05 Units / 10% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 49 of their last 86 games (+11.70 Units / 12% ROI)
• Tarik Skubal – Over/Under 0.5 Walks Allowed (-195/+150)
  Tarik Skubal has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+14.15 Units / 36% ROI)