How to Watch the Phillies vs Nationals Game – Friday August 15, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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Washington Nationals

On August 15, 2025, the Philadelphia Phillies will look to continue their strong season as they face the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park. The Phillies, currently holding a record of 69-52, are in a solid position in the National League East, while the Nationals sit at 49-72, struggling through a disappointing season. In their previous matchup, the Phillies triumphed over the Nationals, further solidifying their dominance in this series.

Pitching will be pivotal in this game, with the Nationals set to start MacKenzie Gore, who has had a challenging year with a 5-12 record and a 4.09 ERA. Despite his struggles, advanced metrics suggest he may have been unlucky, as his 3.48 xFIP indicates he could perform better going forward. However, he faces an uphill battle against Phillies ace Zack Wheeler, who boasts a 10-5 record and an impressive 2.68 ERA, making him one of the elite pitchers in the league at #3 in Power Rankings.

Offensively, the Nationals rank 23rd in MLB, indicating a lack of firepower, particularly in home runs where they sit at 26th. In contrast, the Phillies’ offense is ranked 10th, showcasing a balanced attack with a .254 batting average and a solid ability to score runs. The projections suggest that the Nationals’ lineup, which is among the least patient in the league, may struggle against Wheeler’s low walk rate.

Betting odds reflect the disparity in team performance, with the Nationals as underdogs at +150, implying a team total of just 3.50 runs. Meanwhile, the Phillies are favored at -175 with a higher implied total of 4.50 runs. As both teams take the field, expect the Phillies to leverage their offensive prowess and Wheeler’s elite pitching to secure another win in this critical matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Zack Wheeler – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+165/-220)
  Compared to league average, Zack Wheeler has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an additional 8.2 adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Edmundo Sosa – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Edmundo Sosa has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.6-mph dropping to 83.1-mph over the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen projects as the 7th-best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Washington Nationals Insights

• MacKenzie Gore – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. MacKenzie Gore has gone to his off-speed and breaking balls 5.8% more often this season (50.5%) than he did last season (44.7%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Dylan Crews – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.250) provides evidence that Dylan Crews has had some very poor luck this year with his .199 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• James Wood – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  James Wood has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them out towards baseball’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 39 games (+11.40 Units / 26% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 59 away games (+18.35 Units / 26% ROI)
• Nick Castellanos – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-115/-115)
  Nick Castellanos has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 10 away games (+6.35 Units / 60% ROI)