How to Watch the Padres vs Orioles Game – Sunday July 28, 2024

San Diego Padres

@

Baltimore Orioles

As the Baltimore Orioles gear up to face the San Diego Padres on July 28, 2024, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, they’re looking to bounce back from a tough 9-4 loss to the Padres yesterday. The Orioles, with a strong 61-43 record, are having a great season, while the Padres, sitting at 57-50, are above average but still chasing consistency.

The Orioles will send Albert Suarez to the mound, who has had a mixed season. Suarez’s 3.48 ERA suggests he’s been effective, but his 4.60 xFIP indicates some underlying luck that might not hold up. His last outing was a disaster, allowing six earned runs over just two innings. On the flip side, Suarez faces a Padres lineup that boasts the highest team batting average in MLB but is also the least strikeout-prone, which could pose a challenge for a low-strikeout pitcher like Suarez, who has an 18.6 K%.

Randy Vasquez will start for the Padres, coming off a stellar performance where he pitched six scoreless innings. However, Vasquez’s 4.17 ERA and a concerning 5.89 xERA suggest he might have been fortunate this season. The Orioles’ offense, ranked 3rd overall and leading MLB in home runs, will look to capitalize on Vasquez’s vulnerabilities. With hitters like Gunnar Henderson, who has a .933 OPS and 28 home runs, the Orioles are well-equipped to exploit any mistakes.

Baltimore’s bullpen is a weak spot, ranked 19th, which could be pivotal in a close game. In contrast, the Padres’ bullpen is ranked 8th, possibly giving them an edge in the later innings.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, estimates the Orioles have a 54% win probability, slightly above their implied odds of 56%. Both teams project to score high, with the Orioles at 5.01 runs and the Padres at 4.88, suggesting a potentially high-scoring affair.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Randy Vasquez – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+135/-175)
  Tallying 14.8 outs per game per started this year on average, Randy Vasquez checks in at the 17th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• David Peralta – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  David Peralta has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 86.2-mph to 91.2-mph in the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres’ bullpen projects as the 8th-best out of all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Albert Suarez – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)
  Albert Suarez’s high utilization rate of his fastball (52.4% this year) is likely harming his results, considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Gunnar Henderson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Gunnar Henderson has been very fortunate when it comes to his home runs this year; his 35.8 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is considerably higher than his 24.3 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Anthony Santander pulls many of his flyballs (41.2% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Baltimore Orioles – Run Line -1.5 (+145)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 31 of their last 57 games (+8.60 Units / 13% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Run Line +1.5 (-170)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 24 of their last 37 away games (+10.75 Units / 21% ROI)
• Xander Bogaerts – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.25 Units / 30% ROI)