How to Watch the Orioles vs Rays Game – Wednesday June 18, 2025

Baltimore Orioles

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Tampa Bay Rays

On June 18, 2025, the Tampa Bay Rays will host the Baltimore Orioles at George M. Steinbrenner Field for the third game of their series. The Rays currently hold a record of 40-33, showcasing an above-average season, while the Orioles sit at 31-41, struggling in their campaign. In their last encounter, the Rays fell to the Orioles 5-1, marking a disappointing result after a recent loss.

Taj Bradley is projected to take the mound for the Rays, and despite a Win/Loss record of 4-5 and an ERA of 4.35, he ranks as the 75th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, indicating he’s above average. The projections suggest he’ll pitch 5.5 innings, allowing around 2.7 earned runs while striking out 5.5 batters. However, he also struggles with walks, which could be an issue against a low-walk Orioles offense.

On the other hand, Trevor Rogers is set to start for Baltimore. Though he has an impressive ERA of 0.00 from his single start this season, his underlying metrics suggest a potential decline, indicated by a 3.56 xFIP. Rogers projects to pitch 5.3 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs but with a low strikeout rate of just 3.8.

Offensively, the Rays rank 13th overall, with solid performances from their best hitter who’s recorded a .801 OPS this season. The Orioles’ offense, ranked 18th, has seen some bright spots, but they lack consistency. Given the Rays’ favorable matchup against a struggling pitcher like Rogers, they may have the upper hand despite the close betting lines. With a high implied team total of 4.55 runs, the Rays could find success at the plate today.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Trevor Rogers – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+135/-175)
  With 8 batters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Trevor Rogers will have a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Bats such as Cedric Mullins with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Taj Bradley who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Gary Sanchez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Gary Sanchez pulls many of his flyballs (37.1% — 95th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 7th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Taj Bradley – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Taj Bradley’s 95.6-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 86th percentile out of all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Christopher Morel – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Christopher Morel has big-time power (96th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a sure thing (27.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Trevor Rogers struggles to strike batters out (19th percentile K%) — great news for Morel.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• The Tampa Bay Rays have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jose Caballero, Jonathan Aranda, Christopher Morel).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 22 games at home (+10.75 Units / 45% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 41 of their last 67 games (+10.85 Units / 14% ROI)
• Curtis Mead – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-120/-110)
  Curtis Mead has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+6.65 Units / 19% ROI)