How to Watch the Nationals vs Phillies Game – Saturday August 17, 2024

Washington Nationals

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Philadelphia Phillies

On August 17, 2024, the Philadelphia Phillies will host the Washington Nationals at Citizens Bank Park for the third game of their series. The Phillies, boasting a strong 72-50 record, are firmly in contention and have been enjoying a stellar season. In contrast, the Nationals find themselves struggling at 55-68, leaving them far from competitive this year.

In their last matchup, the Phillies showcased their prowess with a decisive victory, continuing their momentum as they face a Nationals team that has been unable to find consistency. Cristopher Sanchez, projected to start for Philadelphia, ranks as the 40th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics and has a respectable 3.63 ERA this season. He has been somewhat unlucky with a 2.77 FIP, suggesting he could perform even better moving forward.

Sanchez will face MacKenzie Gore, who has a 4.50 ERA and struggles with control, evident in his 9.5 BB% ranking among the highest in the league. This matchup presents a favorable scenario for the Phillies, especially given their high-walk offense, which ranks 4th in MLB. They have the potential to capitalize on Gore’s inconsistencies.

While Sanchez is known for inducing ground balls with a 59% ground ball rate, the Nationals’ offense ranks 29th in home runs, which bodes well for Sanchez’s style of pitching. The Phillies’ offense is firing on all cylinders, ranking 7th in MLB, and with a projected team total of 5.25 runs for this game, they are expected to put up significant numbers. Meanwhile, the Nationals are projected for a mere 3.75 runs, highlighting the disparity in this matchup.

With the odds favoring the Phillies significantly, this game presents a prime opportunity for bettors to back the home team as they look to extend their winning ways against a struggling Nationals squad.

Washington Nationals Insights

• MacKenzie Gore – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  MacKenzie Gore’s fastball velocity over his last 3 outings (94.4 mph) has been quite a bit lower than than his seasonal rate (95.5 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Ildemaro Vargas – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Typically, hitters like Ildemaro Vargas who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Cristopher Sanchez.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals’ bullpen projects as the 2nd-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Cristopher Sanchez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Given that groundball batters are less effective against groundball pitchers, Cristopher Sanchez (55% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this game with 4 GB hitters in the opposing club’s projected lineup.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• J.T. Realmuto – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-250/+190)
  J.T. Realmuto has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (83% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Bryce Harper has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-250)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 38 of their last 56 games at home (+14.40 Units / 13% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 49 games (+11.55 Units / 22% ROI)
• Jacob Young – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1500/-50000)
  Jacob Young has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 5 games (+11.00 Units / 220% ROI)