Washington Nationals
Chicago Cubs
(-120/+100)-165
As the Chicago Cubs gear up to host the Washington Nationals at Wrigley Field on September 19, 2024, both teams find themselves on different ends of the performance spectrum this season. The Cubs, boasting a record of 77-75, have had an average year but remain in the playoff conversation. In contrast, the Nationals sit at 68-84, marking them as one of the less successful teams this season.
The Cubs will send right-hander Javier Assad to the mound. Despite being ranked as the 209th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, Assad’s solid 3.27 ERA this year has been a bright spot. However, his 4.64 xFIP suggests he’s been a bit lucky, indicating potential regression. Meanwhile, Patrick Corbin takes the hill for the Nationals. With a 5.45 ERA, Corbin has had his struggles, but a 4.09 xFIP tells a different story, hinting at some misfortune and the possibility of improved performance.
The Cubs’ offense, ranked 12th best in MLB, presents a balanced attack, especially with their 6th ranking in stolen bases. However, their power output is just average, sitting 19th in home runs. Michael Busch has been a standout performer over the past week, notching three home runs and a 1.133 OPS. On the flip side, the Nationals rank 23rd in offense, struggling with power at 29th in home runs, although they excel in speed, leading the league in stolen bases.
In the bullpen, neither team shines, with the Cubs ranked 24th and the Nationals 26th. However, with the Cubs projected to score 5.41 runs and boasting a 61% projected win probability by THE BAT X, they are favored to take the first game of this series. Given the Nationals’ implied win probability of 38%, they face an uphill battle in this National League matchup.
Betting Trends
- Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-120/-110)The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 62 games at home (+15.80 Units / 22% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 27 games (+6.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- CJ Abrams – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+530/-950)CJ Abrams has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+9.60 Units / 160% ROI)