How to Watch the Marlins vs Mets Game – Wednesday April 09, 2025

Miami Marlins

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New York Mets

On April 9, 2025, the New York Mets will host the Miami Marlins at Citi Field in what promises to be an intriguing National League East matchup. The Mets, currently sitting atop the division, sport an impressive 8-3 record this season, while the Marlins trail with a subpar 5-6. In their last game, the Mets had a standout performance, showcasing their potential as they aim to extend their current series lead against Miami.

Starting on the mound for the Mets will be Tylor Megill, who is off to a remarkable start this season with a 2-0 record and an excellent ERA of 0.87 over his two starts. However, his xFIP of 3.79 suggests he may have been a bit fortunate and might regress moving forward. Nevertheless, Megill projects to allow just 1.8 earned runs and strike out 6.0 batters on average today, putting him in a strong position against a Marlins offense that ranks 22nd in MLB.

On the other side, Max Meyer takes the hill for Miami, holding a 0-1 record and a solid ERA of 3.09. While his projections indicate he might allow around 2.1 earned runs, his below-average strikeout rate of 4.7 could be a factor against a low-strikeout Mets offense. The Mets’ offense, though ranked 23rd overall, is showing flashes of potential, and they still have strong individual performances to draw upon.

Considering the projections and overall matchups, the Mets are favored heavily in the betting landscape, with the moneyline sitting at -220. They aim to capitalize on their early-season success and build momentum, especially against a struggling Marlins squad that has underperformed in recent outings. As the Mets look to solidify their place in the standings, this game represents a critical opportunity to distance themselves from their division rivals.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Max Meyer – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Max Meyer has utilized his off-speed and breaking pitches 7.9% more often this season (66.5%) than he did last season (58.6%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-215/+165)
  Xavier Edwards’s average exit velocity has fallen off this season; his 86-mph average last season has lowered to 79.7-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Miami Marlins have 4 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Dane Myers, Griffin Conine, Matt Mervis, Kyle Stowers).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

New York Mets Insights

• Tylor Megill – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Tylor Megill’s 95.7-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season ranks in the 89th percentile among all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Starling Marte – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Extreme groundball batters like Starling Marte usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Max Meyer.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets’ bullpen profiles as the 7th-worst out of all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Moneyline (-205)
  The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 72 of their last 118 games (+20.35 Units / 13% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 47 of their last 76 games (+14.65 Units / 16% ROI)
• Pete Alonso – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)
  Pete Alonso has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+6.45 Units / 18% ROI)