How to Watch the Cubs vs Twins Game – Tuesday July 08, 2025

Chicago Cubs

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Minnesota Twins

The Minnesota Twins will host the Chicago Cubs on July 8, 2025, in a pivotal Interleague matchup at Target Field. The Cubs are riding high after a dominant 11-0 victory in their last game, while the Twins are struggling, having lost their previous contest 7-5. With the Cubs currently boasting a 54-36 record, they are firmly positioned in a playoff race, while the Twins find themselves at 43-47, floundering in the standings.

Simeon Woods Richard is projected to take the mound for the Twins, bringing a Win/Loss record of 4-4 and a 4.41 ERA this season. Despite his mediocre ERA, Woods Richard’s ranking as the 159th best starting pitcher in MLB suggests he has been underwhelming this year. He’ll face off against Shota Imanaga, who has a 5-2 record and an impressive 2.78 ERA, indicating he has been a key asset for the Cubs’ rotation.

The Cubs’ offense is firing on all cylinders, ranked 3rd in the league, with a notable 136 home runs this season. In contrast, the Twins rank just 20th in overall offensive performance and 23rd in team batting average, highlighting their struggles to consistently score runs. This disparity in offensive production could tilt the game heavily in favor of the Cubs, particularly as Woods Richard, a high-flyball pitcher, faces a powerful lineup capable of turning flyballs into home runs.

Betting markets reflect this sentiment, with the Twins’ moneyline at +115 and the Cubs at -135, indicating that while the game is expected to be competitive, the Cubs are favored to win. The Game Total is set at a high 9.5 runs, suggesting that an offensive explosion could be on the horizon. The projections favor the Cubs, who have a much stronger offensive presence and starting pitcher advantage heading into this matchup.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Shota Imanaga – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Shota Imanaga is projected to throw 84 pitches in this outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 7th-least of all pitchers today.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Extreme groundball batters like Kyle Tucker tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Simeon Woods Richard.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-135)
  The Chicago Cubs projected batting order profiles as the 2nd-best of all teams on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Simeon Woods Richard – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Simeon Woods Richardson has relied on his secondary pitches 5.6% less often this year (54.2%) than he did last season (59.8%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Willi Castro – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Willi Castro is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 52% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Minnesota’s 92-mph exit velocity on flyballs grades them out as the #24 team in the majors this year by this stat.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games at home (+7.40 Units / 34% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-135)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 74 games (+10.50 Units / 9% ROI)
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-135/+105)
  Byron Buxton has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.45 Units / 65% ROI)