How to Watch the Cubs vs Twins Game – Tuesday July 08, 2025

Chicago Cubs

@

Minnesota Twins

On July 8, 2025, the Minnesota Twins will host the Chicago Cubs at Target Field for the first game of their interleague series. The Cubs, boasting a strong 54-36 record, are having a fantastic season and currently sit in a good position to compete for postseason play. Meanwhile, the Twins are struggling at 43-47, reflecting a below-average campaign.

In their last game, the Twins faced a tough opponent, but there’s no denying the Cubs’ recent form, highlighted by their impressive offensive output. The statistics back it up: the Cubs rank 3rd in MLB in team home runs and 5th in batting average, showcasing their potent lineup. Conversely, the Twins’ offense ranks 19th overall and 23rd in team batting average, indicating struggles at the plate.

On the mound, Simeon Woods Richard is projected to start for the Twins. Although his ERA stands at a respectable 4.41, his advanced ranking as the 161st best starting pitcher suggests he has been less effective than many of his peers. The projections indicate he may struggle today, averaging just 4.8 innings pitched with 2.9 earned runs allowed. This could be problematic against a powerful Cubs offense that has already hit 136 home runs this season.

The Cubs will counter with Shota Imanaga, who has been solid with a 2.78 ERA and a 5-2 record this year. However, his xFIP of 4.92 suggests he may have benefited from some good fortune. Imanaga is expected to pitch around 5.2 innings today, making this matchup intriguing.

With the Game Total set at a high 9.0 runs, sports bettors might find value in the Cubs’ moneyline of -140, as they come into this matchup as the favorite. The Twins, while underdogs at +120, will need a significant performance from their lineup to keep pace with the Cubs.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Shota Imanaga – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
  Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Shota Imanaga is projected to throw 84 pitches in this outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 7th-least of all pitchers today.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Extreme groundball batters like Kyle Tucker tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Simeon Woods Richard.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Chicago Cubs have been the 2nd-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress going forward
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Simeon Woods Richard – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Simeon Woods Richardson has relied on his secondary pitches 5.6% less often this year (54.2%) than he did last season (59.8%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Willi Castro – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
  Willi Castro is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 52% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Minnesota’s 92-mph exit velocity on flyballs grades them out as the #24 team in the majors this year by this stat.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Betting Trends

• Ian Happ – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+400/-630)
  Ian Happ has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 away games (+6.70 Units / 67% ROI)