How to Watch Padres vs Cardinals – Sunday, July 27, 2025

San Diego Padres

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St. Louis Cardinals

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to host the San Diego Padres on July 27, 2025, the stakes remain high for both teams. Currently, the Cardinals sit at 54-52, while the Padres boast a stronger 56-49 record. Both teams are aiming for a significant win, especially given the competitive nature of their season. In their last matchup, the Cardinals fell to the Padres, adding a layer of urgency for St. Louis to rebound in this series.

Michael McGreevy is set to take the mound for St. Louis, bringing a solid performance this year with a 2-1 record and an impressive ERA of 3.49. The projections suggest he’ll pitch approximately 5.4 innings and allow around 2.7 earned runs, making him a capable starter. However, despite being ranked as the 66th best pitcher in the league, McGreevy’s low strikeout rate (15.2 K%) could pose challenges against a Padres lineup that has struggled with strikeouts, ranking 3rd lowest in MLB.

On the other hand, San Diego will counter with Stephen Kolek, whose 3-5 record and mediocre ERA of 4.28 reflect a less favorable season. Kolek also grapples with a poor strikeout rate (17.3 K%), which might work to the Cardinals’ advantage. The projections indicate he may allow 2.9 earned runs and is likely to give up 1.4 walks, further enhancing St. Louis’s chances.

Offensively, the Cardinals rank 15th in MLB, with a commendable batting average of .263, while the Padres rank 23rd, struggling to find their rhythm. With the Cardinals’ bullpen ranked 9th and the Padres slightly ahead at 8th, late-game scenarios could significantly impact the outcome. Given the odds, the Cardinals’ implied total of 4.71 runs offers a glimpse into their potential for an offensive breakout, making them the team to watch in this crucial matchup.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Stephen Kolek – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Stephen Kolek will rack up an average of 3.2 strikeouts in today’s game.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Jose Iglesias – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-205)
  Jose Iglesias’s average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 85.8-mph EV last season has dropped off to 83.6-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• San Diego Padres bats as a group rank 27th- in the game for power this year when judging by their 7.3% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  Considering the 1.34 disparity between Michael McGreevy’s 2.80 ERA and his 4.14 estimated true talent ERA (per the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in the majors since the start of last season and should see negative regression going forward.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Ivan Herrera – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Extreme groundball batters like Ivan Herrera tend to be less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Stephen Kolek.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Jordan Walker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Jordan Walker hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.6% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s 7th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Run Line -1.5 (+160)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 41 of their last 74 games (+8.00 Units / 8% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-145)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 41 of their last 62 games (+19.00 Units / 26% ROI)
• Willson Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Willson Contreras has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+7.30 Units / 47% ROI)