
Arizona Diamondbacks

Texas Rangers
(-110/-110)-165
On August 11, 2025, the Texas Rangers will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Globe Life Field for the first game of their interleague matchup. The Rangers are currently 60-59, sitting in the middle of the pack, while the Diamondbacks hold a record of 57-61, indicating a below-average season for them. Notably, Nathan Eovaldi is projected to start for Texas, while Ryne Nelson is set to take the mound for Arizona.
Eovaldi is having a standout year, boasting a stellar 1.38 ERA across 19 starts, which ranks him as the 33rd best starting pitcher in MLB. His projections suggest he’ll pitch around 6.1 innings, allowing an average of 2.2 earned runs and striking out 6.4 batters. Meanwhile, Nelson has been more of a mixed bag, with a commendable 3.20 ERA, but his 3.98 xFIP suggests he could be overachieving this season.
In terms of offense, the Rangers are struggling, ranking 28th in the league, and their average of 4.13 runs is modest at best. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks boast a more potent offense, currently sitting 4th overall, with the potential to put runs on the board, albeit with a low projected total of 3.37 runs for this matchup.
The Rangers enter this game as betting favorites with a moneyline of -160. Given their reliance on Eovaldi’s elite pitching against a high-walk D-Backs offense, Texas might manage to capitalize on this matchup, especially considering Eovaldi’s low walk rate of 4.8%. As the Rangers look to build momentum, the spotlight will be on whether Eovaldi can continue his excellent form while the offense finds a way to support him.
Arizona Diamondbacks Insights
- Ryne Nelson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Ryne Nelson has used his secondary offerings 8.8% less often this season (35.2%) than he did last season (44%).Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
- Geraldo Perdomo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)Over the last week, Geraldo Perdomo’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.2% down to 0%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- The maximum exit velocity of any player on the Arizona Diamondbacks has been 117.9 mph this year, making them the #4 club in the league by this metric.Explain: If a player can hit the ball hard even once, it has great predictive power over his ability to do it again. If he’s never hit the ball hard, it’s a sign of a lack of power.
Texas Rangers Insights
- Nathan Eovaldi – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)Nathan Eovaldi’s fastball velocity has dropped 2.1 mph this year (93.3 mph) below where it was last season (95.4 mph).Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Wyatt Langford – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)Wyatt Langford has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 95-mph average in the last two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal 91.2-mph EV.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Josh Jung – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Josh Jung hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 96th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 7th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 54 games at home (+12.70 Units / 21% ROI)
- Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+135)The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 54 of their last 98 games (+17.40 Units / 13% ROI)
- Wyatt Langford – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-110/-120)Wyatt Langford has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+7.90 Units / 26% ROI)