How to Watch Cubs vs Reds – Tuesday, July 30, 2024

Chicago Cubs

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Cincinnati Reds

The Cincinnati Reds are set to host the Chicago Cubs on July 30, 2024, in a National League Central showdown at Great American Ball Park. Coming off a 5-4 win over the Cubs in the first game of this series, the Reds look to continue their momentum. Despite both teams having below-average seasons, this matchup offers intrigue, particularly with the pitching duel on tap.

The Reds, who are 51-55, will send Frankie Montas to the mound. Montas has had a tough season, sporting a 5.01 ERA and a 4-8 win/loss record through 19 starts. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, does not offer much optimism, projecting Montas to give up an average of 3.1 earned runs over 5.4 innings. His high walk rate (10.0 BB%) might spell trouble against a Cubs lineup known for drawing walks (5th most in MLB). Additionally, Montas’s control issues could inflate the Cubs’ chances to capitalize on base runners.

Opposing him will be Justin Steele for the Cubs. Steele has been one of the brighter spots in the Cubs’ rotation, boasting a solid 3.08 ERA and a rank of 27th among starting pitchers in the league. However, his xFIP of 3.71 suggests he might have been somewhat fortunate this season. The projections have Steele giving up an average of 2.8 earned runs over 5.4 innings, a middling projection that aligns with the Cubs’ -140 moneyline favoring them.

Offensively, the Reds rank 20th in overall talent, with the Cubs lagging slightly behind at 22nd. Cincinnati holds the edge in home runs (13th), but their team batting average ranks near the bottom (27th). On the flip side, the Cubs have struggled both in team batting average (23rd) and home runs (23rd). Key players to watch are the Reds’ Elly De La Cruz, who has been scorching hot over the last week with a .375 batting average, 6 hits, and 6 stolen bases, and the Cubs’ Seiya Suzuki, who has posted a 1.105 OPS with 2 home runs and 7 hits in the same span.

The bullpens for both teams have been a sore spot, ranking 28th and 27th respectively in advanced-stat Power Rankings. This further underscores the importance of the starting pitchers to go deep into the game.

The game total of 9.0 runs indicates a high-scoring affair, likely due to shaky bullpen performances and Montas’s propensity to allow hits and walks. With the Cubs favored and the Reds as a +120 underdog, today’s matchup should provide a fascinating contest between these NL Central rivals.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Justin Steele – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-180/+140)
  Generating 18.1 outs per GS this year on average, Justin Steele checks in at the 93rd percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Isaac Paredes has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.9-mph dropping to 82.7-mph in the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  The Chicago Cubs bullpen ranks as the 3rd-worst in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Tony Santillan – Over/Under 1.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  As it relates to his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Tony Santillan in the 76th percentile among all starters in baseball.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• TJ Friedl – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (8.6) provides evidence that T.J. Friedl has had positive variance on his side since the start of last season with his 20.3 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Jeimer Candelario – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Jeimer Candelario pulls many of his flyballs (37.6% — 95th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 52 of their last 92 games (+12.30 Units / 12% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 53 of their last 93 games (+12.50 Units / 12% ROI)
• Nico Hoerner – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1000/-4000)
  Nico Hoerner has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 15 away games (+12.00 Units / 80% ROI)