How to Watch Cardinals vs Nationals – Sunday, May 11, 2025

St. Louis Cardinals

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Washington Nationals

On May 11, 2025, the Washington Nationals will host the St. Louis Cardinals at Nationals Park for the third game of their series. The Nationals are currently struggling with a record of 17-23, while the Cardinals hold a slightly better 21-19 record. In their last matchup, the Nationals fell to the Cardinals 4-2 on May 10, continuing a rough stretch for the home team.

MacKenzie Gore is expected to take the mound for the Nationals, and despite the team’s overall challenges, he has shown promise this season. Gore ranks as the 45th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics, boasting a solid ERA of 3.33 and a favorable 2.41 xFIP, suggesting he might be due for better outcomes moving forward. He projects to pitch around 5.5 innings, allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs and striking out 6.4 batters, showcasing his potential to keep the game competitive.

On the other side, the Cardinals will counter with Miles Mikolas, who has struggled this season. Mikolas is ranked among the worst pitchers in the league with a 4.76 ERA and a concerning 5.40 xFIP, indicating he may face difficulties against a Nationals offense that ranks 16th overall but has shown flashes of capability.

Interestingly, the Nationals’ top hitter has been productive lately, maintaining a .320 batting average over the last week, while the Cardinals’ best hitter has also been on fire, posting a .364 average during the same period. This matchup presents an intriguing dynamic, especially with the Nationals favored at a moneyline of -155, suggesting they have a solid chance to bounce back in this contest. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, reflecting expectations for a competitive encounter.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Miles Mikolas – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Given that flyball pitchers struggle the most against groundball hitters, Miles Mikolas (34.4% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in today’s game with 5 GB hitters in Washington’s projected offense.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Jordan Walker – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Jordan Walker has been unlucky this year, compiling a .243 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .309 — a .066 discrepancy.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• The St. Louis Cardinals (19.9 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy set of batters of all teams on the slate.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Washington Nationals Insights

• MacKenzie Gore – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  MacKenzie Gore’s higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this year (51.5% compared to 44.7% last season) should work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• James Wood – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  James Wood has a ton of pop (89th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s usually a big “IF” (27.4% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Miles Mikolas has a pitch-to-contact profile (21st percentile K%) — great news for Wood.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals’ bullpen profiles as the 10th-worst among all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.85 Units / 58% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (+120)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.30 Units / 50% ROI)
• Alex Call – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-150/+115)
  Alex Call has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+11.05 Units / 52% ROI)