Guardians vs Tigers Betting Guide and Expert Picks May 24th, 2025

Cleveland Guardians

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Detroit Tigers

The Detroit Tigers will host the Cleveland Guardians in the third game of their series on May 24, 2025, at Comerica Park. The Tigers currently sit at 33-19 and look to bounce back after a tough 3-1 loss to the Guardians in their last matchup, while Cleveland enters with a record of 28-22, riding the momentum from their recent victory.

On the mound, Casey Mize is projected to start for Detroit. Mize has been solid this season with a 6-1 record and a stellar 2.53 ERA, although his 3.84 xFIP suggests he may have benefited from some good fortune. He averages 5.1 innings pitched while allowing 2.1 earned runs, but his strikeout rate of 3.9 per game raises some questions about his ability to dominate hitters. In his last appearance on May 8, Mize delivered a strong performance, going 6 innings with just 1 earned run and 8 strikeouts.

Luis Ortiz will take the hill for Cleveland. Ortiz, who has a 2-5 record and a 4.66 ERA, is considered an average pitcher but has a solid strikeout rate of 26.5%. He is projected to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing about 2.6 earned runs. Ortiz’s most recent outing on May 18 saw him go 5 innings with 2 earned runs and 7 strikeouts.

The Tigers boast the 7th best offense in MLB this season, with a team batting average that reflects their underlying talent. In contrast, the Guardians rank 23rd in offensive performance, which could be a significant factor in this matchup. Detroit’s bullpen is also rated 2nd best in MLB, enhancing their chances of closing out games effectively.

Betting lines favor the Tigers with a moneyline of -145, suggesting they have a strong chance to take this game. With Mize’s recent form and the Tigers’ solid overall performance, they look positioned to secure a victory against the Guardians.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Luis Ortiz – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Luis L. Ortiz’s 95.5-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 85th percentile out of all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Kyle Manzardo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Kyle Manzardo is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Detroit (#2-worst of all teams today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians’ bullpen grades out as the 6th-best out of all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Casey Mize – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Because flyball hitters hold a significant edge over groundball pitchers, Casey Mize and his 46.6% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a difficult spot in this matchup facing 3 opposing GB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Zach McKinstry – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Zach McKinstry has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 5.9% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the last 14 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Trey Sweeney – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Trey Sweeney hits many of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 2nd-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 30 of their last 50 games (+9.43 Units / 16% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.50 Units / 33% ROI)
• Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+140/-180)
  Spencer Torkelson has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 20 games (+7.20 Units / 35% ROI)