Cleveland Guardians
Tampa Bay Rays
(-110/-110)-140
As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to face off against the Cleveland Guardians on September 6, 2025, both teams find themselves in a tight race with average records of 71-70 and 70-70, respectively. The Rays, currently sitting just above .500, are looking to capitalize on their strong bullpen, ranked 3rd best in MLB, as they aim to secure a win in this pivotal matchup. Last night, the Rays fell short in a close game against the Guardians, underscoring the importance of this series.
Shane Baz is projected to take the mound for the Rays, coming off a season where he has started 27 games with a Win/Loss record of 9-11 and an ERA of 4.98. Despite his below-average ERA, his xFIP of 3.90 suggests that he has been somewhat unlucky this season and could be poised for a better performance. Baz’s average projection of 5.4 innings pitched today might be crucial in keeping the Guardians’ struggling offense, ranked 30th in MLB, at bay.
On the other side, Tanner Bibee will start for the Guardians, also with a 9-11 record and a slightly better ERA of 4.77. However, his metrics indicate he too has faced misfortune this year, with a 4.27 SIERA suggesting potential for improvement. Both pitchers are right-handed and evenly matched, but the Rays’ offense, ranked 14th overall and 7th in batting average, holds an advantage against the Guardians’ lackluster lineup.
With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs and the Rays favored at a moneyline of -140, there’s an opportunity for bettors to favor Tampa Bay, especially given their strong offensive metrics and the Guardians’ struggles at the plate. The projections lean toward a higher total for the Rays, making them an intriguing pick as they look to bounce back and secure a critical victory.
Cleveland Guardians Insights
- Tanner Bibee – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)Tanner Bibee’s 2245-rpm spin rate on his fastball this year is a sizeable 116-rpm fall off from last year’s 2361-rpm figure.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
- Kyle Manzardo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)Kyle Manzardo has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.3-mph to 98.4-mph in the past 7 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (42% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 5th-shallowest RF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Tampa Bay Rays Insights
- Shane Baz – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)Shane Baz has averaged 91.7 adjusted pitches per start this year, placing in the 76th percentile.Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Jake Mangum – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)Jake Mangum is an extreme groundball batter and faces the strong infield defense of Cleveland (#1-best of all teams today).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- As a team, Tampa Bay Rays hitters have struggled as it relates to hitting balls in the launch angle span that tends to optimize home runs (between 23° and 34°), ranking 2nd-worst in Major League Baseball.Explain: Balls that are hit too low can’t clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don’t go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.
Betting Trends
- Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 79 of their last 139 games (+11.05 Units / 7% ROI)
- Cleveland Guardians – Run Line +1.5 (-175)The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Run Line in 36 of their last 60 away games (+8.90 Units / 11% ROI)
- Shane Baz – Over/Under 2.5 Earned Runs (+125/-160)Shane Baz has hit the Earned Runs Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.50 Units / 33% ROI)