Cleveland Guardians
Tampa Bay Rays
(-120/+100)-140
The Tampa Bay Rays will host the Cleveland Guardians at George M. Steinbrenner Field on September 6, 2025, in what serves as the third game of their series. With both teams hovering around .500, the stakes are modest but significant for the Rays (71-70) and Guardians (70-70) as they look to gain ground in the standings. The Rays are a betting favorite with a moneyline of -140, reflecting a 56% implied win probability, while the Guardians sit at +120, implying a 44% chance of victory.
In their last matchup, the Guardians secured a decisive 7-1 victory, a result that highlighted the struggles of the Rays’ offense. The projections indicate that the Rays rank 14th in offensive performance this season, while the Guardians have plummeted to 30th. This stark contrast in offensive effectiveness could play a crucial role in determining the outcome of this game.
On the mound, Shane Baz is set to start for the Rays. He has been inconsistent this season, holding a 9-11 record and a 4.98 ERA, but his recent performance suggests potential improvement. In his last start on September 1, Baz delivered a strong outing, pitching 6 innings with no earned runs. This aligns with his projected performance, which suggests he should pitch around 5.3 innings while allowing 2.4 earned runs. In contrast, Tanner Bibee will take the mound for the Guardians, also posting a 9-11 record with a 4.77 ERA. Bibee’s projections indicate he may struggle, projected to allow 2.9 earned runs over 5.6 innings.
Given the Rays’ superior bullpen, ranked 1st in MLB, and the Guardians’ offensive woes, Tampa Bay looks poised to capitalize on their home advantage and bounce back from their recent loss. This matchup sets the stage for an intriguing game, as the Rays seek to leverage their strengths against a struggling Cleveland lineup.
Cleveland Guardians Insights
- Tanner Bibee – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)Tanner Bibee’s 2245-rpm spin rate on his fastball this year is a sizeable 116-rpm fall off from last year’s 2361-rpm figure.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
- Kyle Manzardo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)Kyle Manzardo has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.4-mph to 97.6-mph in the past 7 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (41.9% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 5th-shallowest RF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Tampa Bay Rays Insights
- Shane Baz – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)Shane Baz has averaged 91.9 adjusted pitches per start this year, placing in the 77th percentile.Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Junior Caminero – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)Junior Caminero has experienced some positive variance in regards to his home runs this year; his 42.9 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is significantly inflated relative to his 32.7 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
- As a team, Tampa Bay Rays hitters have struggled as it relates to hitting balls in the launch angle span that tends to optimize home runs (between 23° and 34°), ranking worst in Major League Baseball.Explain: Balls that are hit too low can’t clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don’t go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.
Betting Trends
- Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 79 of their last 139 games (+11.05 Units / 7% ROI)
- Cleveland Guardians – Run Line +1.5 (-175)The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Run Line in 36 of their last 60 away games (+8.90 Units / 11% ROI)
- Shane Baz – Over/Under 2.5 Earned Runs (+120/-150)Shane Baz has hit the Earned Runs Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.50 Units / 33% ROI)