Guardians vs Pirates Picks and Betting Odds – 4/19/2025

Cleveland Guardians

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Pittsburgh Pirates

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to face off against the Cleveland Guardians on April 19, 2025, they do so after a tough loss in the series opener, falling 10-7. With a record of 8-13, the Pirates are struggling this season, ranking 28th in MLB offense and 26th in bullpen performance, which has compounded their difficulties. In contrast, the Guardians sit at 10-9, boasting an average offensive ranking of 15th, which highlights their slightly better form.

On the mound, the Pirates are projected to start Paul Skenes, who has quickly established himself as an elite pitcher, currently ranked 1st among all starters according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Skenes has a solid 2.96 ERA and has been unlucky this season, as indicated by his 2.24 xFIP, suggesting he could improve further. In his last start on April 14, Skenes delivered an impressive performance, going 6 innings with just 1 earned run.

Opposing him will be Ben Lively, who has struggled this season with a 4.87 ERA and a 0-2 record. Lively’s projections indicate he may allow 3 earned runs while pitching about 5.1 innings, which raises concerns given the Pirates’ ability to strike out—ranking 2nd in MLB for strikeouts. This matchup may favor Skenes, especially against a pitcher who has had difficulties.

While the Pirates’ offense has been lackluster, they do rank 3rd in stolen bases, which could present a unique challenge for Lively. The Guardians, meanwhile, have been hitting well, with their best hitter maintaining a solid OPS of .845.

With the Pirates favored at -165, the projections suggest they might outperform expectations in this matchup, especially with Skenes on the mound. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating a potentially competitive game ahead.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Ben Lively – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)
  This year, Ben Lively has added a new pitch to his repertoire (a cut-fastball), mixing it in on 7.4% of his pitches.
  Explain: Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.
• Kyle Manzardo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Pittsburgh’s 3rd-worst outfield defense on the slate creates a favorable matchup for Kyle Manzardo, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Nolan Jones – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Nolan Jones has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 11th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Paul Skenes – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Paul Skenes’s fastball velocity has dropped 1.6 mph this year (97.3 mph) below where it was last year (98.9 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Jack Suwinski – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-120/-110)
  Jack Suwinski has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (82% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Oneil Cruz, Jared Triolo, Jack Suwinski).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 45 of their last 87 games at home (+1.85 Units / 2% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 87 of their last 171 games (+7.45 Units / 4% ROI)
• Tommy Pham – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Tommy Pham has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+9.05 Units / 46% ROI)