Guardians vs Padres Picks and Betting Odds – 4/2/2025

Cleveland Guardians

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San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres are soaring with a perfect 6-0 record to start the season, showcasing their potential to be a force in the National League. Meanwhile, the Cleveland Guardians are struggling, sitting at 2-3 as they head into this interleague matchup at Petco Park on April 2, 2025. In their last game, the Padres took a decisive victory, adding to their momentum as they face a Guardians team that has been inconsistent at best.

On the mound, the Padres are projected to start Dylan Cease, who, despite a rough ERA of 6.23 this season, ranks as the 15th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced projections. His 2.75 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and is likely to improve. Cease is expected to pitch around 5.6 innings while allowing 2.1 earned runs and striking out 6.3 batters, setting up well against a Guardians offense that has been average at best.

The Guardians will counter with Ben Lively, a low-strikeout pitcher whose effectiveness has been hampered by a 5.40 ERA. Although projections indicate that he may also improve, he faces a Padres lineup that ranks 19th overall in MLB offense but has shown flashes of brilliance, particularly with base running, ranking 3rd in stolen bases. Lively’s control could limit walks, but he will need to keep the Padres’ hitters in check to avoid a potential blowout.

With the Padres being heavy favorites at -175, the betting landscape reflects their current dominance. The Game Total is set at a low 7.5 runs, indicating expectations for a potentially low-scoring affair. As the Padres look to continue their unbeaten streak, they’ll need Cease to harness his elite potential against a Guardians team that desperately needs a turnaround.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Ben Lively – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Ben Lively’s 89.9-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season ranks in the 3rd percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Typically, bats like Jose Ramirez who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Dylan Cease.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians’ bullpen profiles as the 2nd-best among all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

San Diego Padres Insights

• San Diego Padres – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-205)
  Dylan Cease is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.6% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #8 HR venue among all major league stadiums in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Martin Maldonado – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Martin Maldonado has big-time power (75th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a sure thing (33.3% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Ben Lively doesn’t generate many whiffs (4th percentile K%) — great news for Maldonado.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Jackson Merrill hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (-185)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 65 of their last 104 games (+19.15 Units / 13% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 79 away games (+15.20 Units / 17% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+490/-850)
  Jose Ramirez has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 away games (+11.90 Units / 119% ROI)