San Diego Padres
Chicago Cubs
(-110/-110)-165
On April 4, 2025, the Chicago Cubs will host the San Diego Padres in what promises to be an intriguing matchup at Wrigley Field. The Cubs enter the game with a record of 5-4, looking to continue their strong start to the season, while the Padres are riding high at 7-0, showcasing their dominance early on. This game marks the first in a series between these two National League teams.
Shota Imanaga is projected to take the mound for the Cubs. He has been solid, boasting an impressive ERA of 0.82 this season, although his xFIP of 6.00 suggests he may not sustain this level of performance. Imanaga’s success hinges on his ability to limit earned runs, as he projects to allow just 2.1 earned runs over an average of 6.3 innings. However, he faces a challenge against a Padres lineup that ranks as the 9th best in MLB this season.
Randy Vasquez will counter for the Padres, and while he has not yet allowed a run this year, his xFIP of 6.38 indicates that he could also be due for regression. Vasquez is a high-walk pitcher who may struggle against a Cubs offense that ranks 1st in the league for walks drawn. This could provide an advantage for the Cubs, especially since their power hitters could exploit Vasquez’s tendency to allow fly balls.
With the Cubs as betting favorites at -165, sportsbooks project a low-scoring affair with a total set at just 6.5 runs. Despite the low implied team total of 3.62 runs, the Cubs have the potential to capitalize on Vasquez’s weaknesses, making this matchup one to watch closely.
San Diego Padres Insights
- Randy Vasquez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)When assessing his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Randy Vasquez in the 4th percentile among all starters in MLB.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
- Brandon Lockridge – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)Extreme groundball bats like Brandon Lockridge tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Shota Imanaga.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Martin Maldonado – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)Martin Maldonado pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.4% — 90th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 6th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Chicago Cubs Insights
- Ian Happ – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)The switch-hitting Ian Happ will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side (0) today against Randy Vasquez.Explain: Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.
Betting Trends
- Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 43 of their last 65 games at home (+18.85 Units / 25% ROI)
- San Diego Padres – Moneyline (+145)The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 65 of their last 104 games (+19.15 Units / 13% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+11.10 Units / 41% ROI)