Miami Marlins
St. Louis Cardinals
(+100/-120)-150
On July 29, 2025, the St. Louis Cardinals host the Miami Marlins at Busch Stadium in what is already the second game of the series. After a tightly contested matchup yesterday, the Cardinals emerged victorious, putting them at 55-53, while the Marlins fell to 50-55. With both teams hovering around .500, this game carries significance as both aim to improve their standings.
The Cardinals will send Sonny Gray to the mound, who boasts a solid Win/Loss record of 10-4 this season. Despite an average ERA of 4.33, Gray’s advanced metrics tell a different story; his 2.89 xFIP indicates he has been somewhat unlucky, suggesting he could perform even better in this outing. With projections suggesting he’ll pitch about 5.7 innings while allowing 2.3 earned runs, Gray’s ability to limit damage will be crucial against a Marlins lineup that ranks just 18th in offense.
On the flip side, Sandy Alcantara, who has struggled with a 6.66 ERA and a 5-9 record, takes the ball for Miami. His 4.41 xFIP indicates some potential for improvement, but he faces a Cardinals offense that, despite being ranked 15th overall, ranks 10th in batting average. The projections indicate Alcantara could pitch 6.1 innings but may surrender 2.8 earned runs, which could be problematic given his recent form.
With the Cardinals favored at a moneyline of -165, the matchup favors them, especially considering their strong bullpen ranked 8th in the league. Meanwhile, the Marlins’ bullpen sits at 20th, putting added pressure on Alcantara to deliver a strong performance. As the game total is set at a low 7.5 runs, expect a tense battle that could hinge on the performances of the starting pitchers.
Miami Marlins Insights
- Sandy Alcantara – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)With 7 batters who share his handedness in the opposing team’s projected offense, Sandy Alcantara ought to benefit from owning the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)The switch-hitting Xavier Edwards will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side (0) today against Sonny Gray.Explain: Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.
St. Louis Cardinals Insights
- Sonny Gray – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)Sonny Gray’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.2 mph this year (91.1 mph) below where it was last year (92.3 mph).Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Jordan Walker – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)Jordan Walker hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.8% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s 7th-shallowest CF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- St. Louis Cardinals – Run Line -1.5 (+145)The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 41 of their last 74 games (+8.95 Units / 10% ROI)
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 62 games (+15.85 Units / 23% ROI)
- Otto Lopez – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+155/-205)Otto Lopez has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 25 away games (+7.45 Units / 30% ROI)