Chicago Cubs
Los Angeles Dodgers
(-110/-110)-190
As the Los Angeles Dodgers prepare to host the Chicago Cubs on September 9, 2024, it’s clear that this matchup carries significant weight for both teams. The Dodgers currently hold a strong record of 86-57, sitting comfortably in playoff contention, while the Cubs, at 73-70, are in the midst of an average season with little chance of postseason glory. The Dodgers’ last game was an impressive 4-0 shutout against the Guardians, showcasing their dominant pitching and powerful offense.
Walker Buehler is projected to take the mound for the Dodgers, despite having struggled this season with a 1-4 record and a concerning ERA of 5.67. However, advanced metrics suggest he may be due for a positive turnaround, as his 4.67 xFIP indicates he has been somewhat unlucky. Buehler’s recent performance was solid, pitching 5 innings with only 2 earned runs allowed in his last start.
On the other side, Kyle Hendricks will start for the Cubs, carrying a dismal record of 3-11 and an ERA of 6.60. Hendricks has also faced his share of misfortune, reflected in his 4.47 xFIP. He pitched well in his last outing, allowing 2 earned runs over 5 innings, but overall, he has struggled to find consistency this season.
Offensively, the Dodgers rank 3rd in MLB, bolstered by standout performances from hitters like Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts. The projections suggest the Dodgers will score around 6.23 runs on average, while the Cubs are forecasted to manage only 5.12 runs. Given the Dodgers’ superior lineup and the projections from the leading MLB projection system, they are expected to come out on top in this opening game of the series. The Dodgers are currently favored with a high implied team total of 5.75 runs, signaling confidence in their ability to dominate the game.
Chicago Cubs Insights
- Kyle Hendricks – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-165/+130)Out of all SPs, Kyle Hendricks’s fastball velocity of 87.1 mph is in the 0th percentile this year.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)Isaac Paredes’s average exit velocity has declined this year; his 86.9-mph average last season has decreased to 84.7-mph.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)Seiya Suzuki hits many of his flyballs to center field (42.8% — 100th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball’s 9th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Walker Buehler – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+135/-175)Walker Buehler has been given a below-average leash this year, throwing 8.5 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
- Max Muncy – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)Max Muncy is an extreme flyball batter and faces the strong outfield defense of Chicago (#2-best of all teams on the slate).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-190)The Los Angeles Dodgers projected offense grades out as the strongest of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive ability.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- Los Angeles Dodgers – Run Line -1.5 (-105)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Run Line in 16 of their last 26 games at home (+9.85 Units / 34% ROI)
- Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (+165)The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 53 games (+11.05 Units / 17% ROI)
- Mookie Betts – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+130/-170)Mookie Betts has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+10.65 Units / 63% ROI)