Get the Winning Probability and Match Preview for Pirates vs Cardinals - Friday, August 28, 2026

-115O/U: 7
(-120/+100)-105

Jared Jones – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
When estimating his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Jared Jones in the 91st percentile among all starting pitchers in MLB.
Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
Esmerlyn Valdez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
Esmerlyn Valdez has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 107.2-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 92.1-mph mark.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Esmerlyn Valdez, Brandon Lowe, Oneil Cruz).
Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)
Over his last 3 GS, Quinn Mathews has compiled a monstrous ERA of 6.43.
Explain: A pitcher who has struggled in his most recent outings may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
St. Louis Cardinals – 2H Moneyline
The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen grades out as the 10th-best in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 20 away games (+7.50 Units / 34% ROI)

WriteNow™ by EV Analytics