Get the Winning Probability and Match Preview for Pirates vs Cardinals – Friday, August 28, 2026

Pittsburgh Pirates

@

St. Louis Cardinals

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Jared Jones – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+120)
  When estimating his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Jared Jones in the 91st percentile among all starting pitchers in MLB.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Esmerlyn Valdez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Esmerlyn Valdez has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 107.2-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 92.1-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected offense for the Pittsburgh Pirates in this game has an estimated true talent wOBA of .310, which is a fair amount worse than their actual wOBA of .322 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)
  Over his last 3 GS, Quinn Mathews has compiled a monstrous ERA of 6.43.
  Explain: A pitcher who has struggled in his most recent outings may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• St. Louis Cardinals – 2H Moneyline
  The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen grades out as the 9th-best in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 15 games (+9.00 Units / 54% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 20 away games (+7.50 Units / 34% ROI)
• JJ Wetherholt – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  JJ Wetherholt has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 20 games at home (+7.10 Units / 31% ROI)