Get the Royals vs Rangers Injury Report – Thursday, June 19, 2025

Kansas City Royals

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Texas Rangers

The Texas Rangers will host the Kansas City Royals on June 19, 2025, in the third game of their series. Both teams enter this matchup with identical records of 36-38, indicating an average season thus far. The Rangers recently lost to the Royals 6-3 on June 18, while Kansas City is riding a wave of momentum after that victory.

On the mound, the Rangers are expected to start Shawn Armstrong, who has had a mixed year; he holds a 2-1 record with an impressive ERA of 3.00. However, his xFIP of 3.94 suggests he may have been a bit fortunate, and he’s projected to pitch just 2.0 innings today, which isn’t ideal. Armstrong’s high strikeout rate of 28.2% is noteworthy, but he faces a Royals offense that ranks as the 2nd least strikeout-heavy in MLB. This matchup could present challenges for Armstrong in leveraging his strengths.

Conversely, the Royals will send Michael Wacha to the mound. Wacha has a 3-6 record with a solid 3.38 ERA, but like Armstrong, his xFIP indicates he might be due for a regression. Wacha projects to pitch 5.6 innings, which is more favorable, although his strikeout rate is below average at 4.6 strikeouts per game.

Offensively, the Rangers have struggled, ranking 28th in MLB, while the Royals are not far behind at 27th. The projections suggest the Rangers have a slight edge with an implied team total of 4.14 runs compared to the Royals’ 3.86. Given the circumstances and the pitchers’ profiles, this game could be tightly contested, making it an intriguing matchup for bettors.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Wacha – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-160/+125)
  Generating 17.1 outs per GS this year on average, Michael Wacha places him the 76th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Salvador Perez are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Shawn Armstrong.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Kansas City Royals have been the 8th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better going forward
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Texas Rangers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Shawn Armstrong has used his fastball a lot since the start of last season, though: 60.3% of the time, grading out in the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Evan Carter – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
  Evan Carter is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Texas Rangers – 2H Moneyline
  The Texas Rangers bullpen grades out as the 5th-worst in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 55 games (+18.00 Units / 29% ROI)
• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 52 games (+17.35 Units / 29% ROI)
• Vinnie Pasquantino – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-115/-115)
  Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.85 Units / 34% ROI)