Get the Rays vs Blue Jays Injury Report – Wednesday, May 14, 2025

Tampa Bay Rays

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Toronto Blue Jays

On May 14, 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays will host the Tampa Bay Rays at Rogers Centre in an American League East matchup. The Blue Jays have had an average season so far with a record of 20-21, while the Rays sit at 19-22, struggling to find their footing. Notably, the Blue Jays managed to win the first game of this series, and they will look to build on that momentum today.

Toronto’s projected starter, Chris Bassitt, enters the game ranked as the 87th best starting pitcher in MLB per the leading MLB projection system, indicating that he is slightly above average. Bassitt has a solid ERA of 3.35 this season and boasts a 3-2 win/loss record over eight starts. He typically pitches around 5.8 innings, allowing an average of 2.6 earned runs, but his projections suggest he might allow a concerning 5.2 hits today.

In contrast, Ryan Pepiot, projected to start for Tampa Bay, has been more of a mixed bag. While his ERA is decent at 3.86, his 4.46 xERA suggests he could be due for a downturn. Pepiot’s strikeouts are below average, and he also tends to allow a good number of hits, mirroring Bassitt’s struggles in that area.

Offensively, the Blue Jays rank 16th in the league, with challenges in home runs and stolen bases. Meanwhile, the Rays sit lower at 23rd overall despite having an average batting average. Toronto’s bullpen ranks 4th in MLB, which could provide a significant advantage should the game come down to late-inning relief.

With a current moneyline favoring the Blue Jays at -145, the betting market reflects a high implied team total of 4.31 runs. Given the mismatch in pitching performance and the strengths of the bullpens, Toronto appears primed to capitalize on its home advantage and continue their success against a floundering Rays offense.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (+135)
  Out of every team on the slate today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Travis Jankowski – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Travis Jankowski usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Chris Bassitt.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Tampa Bay Rays bats jointly place 27th- in MLB for power this year when assessing with their 7% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Toronto Blue Jays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-175)
  Chris Bassitt is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.1% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #2 HR venue among all major league stadiums today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• George Springer – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  George Springer has made significant improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 18.3% seasonal rate to 26.1% in the past two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 80th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 10th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line -1.5 (+135)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 25 of their last 41 games (+6.60 Units / 11% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (+135)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 away games (+8.45 Units / 83% ROI)
• Jonathan Aranda – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-115/-115)
  Jonathan Aranda has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 6 games (+6.15 Units / 84% ROI)