Get the Nationals vs Cardinals Injury Report – Friday, July 26, 2024

Washington Nationals

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St. Louis Cardinals

The National League matchup between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Washington Nationals is set for July 26, 2024, at Busch Stadium. Both teams are looking to bounce back after recent losses. The Cardinals, despite an above-average season with a 53-49 record, were shut out by the Pirates 5-0 on July 24. Meanwhile, the Nationals, with a 47-56 record, also faced a shutout, losing 3-0 to the Padres. This game marks the beginning of a new series for both teams.

Sonny Gray, the Cardinals’ ace and ranked as the No. 18 best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, will take the mound. Gray has been having a solid season with a 10-6 record and a 3.54 ERA. His peripheral indicator, a 2.69 xFIP, suggests he’s been a bit unlucky and could improve going forward. Despite allowing five earned runs in his last start, Gray projects to allow just 2.1 earned runs and strike out 5.4 batters on average today.

On the other side, the Nationals will counter with MacKenzie Gore, an above-average pitcher ranked No. 78. Gore’s season has been more of a rollercoaster, with a 6-8 record and a 4.20 ERA. However, his 3.13 FIP indicates that he too has faced some bad luck. The projections are less favorable for Gore, expecting him to allow 2.7 earned runs on average today.

Offensively, the Cardinals have the edge. Their lineup, featuring Alec Burleson, who boasts a .289 batting average and 18 home runs, ranks 19th in MLB. Conversely, the Nationals’ offense, despite C.J. Abrams’ contributions, ranks 26th and has struggled with power, sitting 29th in team home runs.

According to the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, St. Louis is a big favorite with a projected win probability of 66%, which is 6% higher than the betting market suggests. With a low Game Total of 7.5 runs, the Cardinals’ solid bullpen and edge in starting pitching make them an attractive option for bettors today.

Washington Nationals Insights

• MacKenzie Gore – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  MacKenzie Gore’s change-up rate has jumped by 6.2% from last year to this one (2.9% to 9.1%) .
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Keibert Ruiz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Despite posting a .254 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Keibert Ruiz has had bad variance on his side given the .040 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .294.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• Juan Yepez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-200/+155)
  Juan Yepez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.4% — 96th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB’s 6th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Sonny Gray – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Over his previous 3 outings, Sonny Gray has seen a substantial drop off in his fastball spin rate: from 2540 rpm over the entire season to 2457 rpm lately.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Brendan Donovan – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Brendan Donovan has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (70% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The St. Louis Cardinals (20.8 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 5th-least strikeout-heavy team of hitters of all teams today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.95 Units / 61% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Run Line +1.5 (-145)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 52 of their last 93 games (+6.50 Units / 5% ROI)
• Lane Thomas – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+200/-270)
  Lane Thomas has hit the RBIs Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+9.65 Units / 19% ROI)