Get the Latest Score Updates for Padres vs Twins – Sunday August 31, 2025

San Diego Padres

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Minnesota Twins

As the Minnesota Twins host the San Diego Padres on August 31, 2025, both teams come into this Interleague matchup with contrasting seasons. The Twins hold a record of 61-74, positioning them as below average in the league, while the Padres boast a solid 76-60 record, reflecting their strong performance this season. Adding to the intrigue, the Twins lost their last game in a lopsided fashion, falling 12-3 to the Padres, who will aim to continue that momentum.

On the mound, the Twins are projected to start Joe Ryan, who is ranked as the 16th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Ryan’s Win/Loss record stands at 12-7 with an impressive 3.22 ERA, though he struggled in his last outing, allowing six earned runs. He faces David Morgan of the Padres, who has a lower Win/Loss record of 1-2 but an excellent ERA of 2.95. However, Morgan’s projections indicate he might have been a bit lucky this season and is expected to perform worse moving forward.

The Twins offense, ranked 17th best overall and 23rd in batting average, has room for improvement as they deal with a lack of consistency. In contrast, the Padres’ offense ranks 15th overall and shines in batting average (8th), but has struggled to hit home runs, coming in at 29th.

Betting markets have the Twins favored at -125 with a high implied team total of 4.40 runs, while the Padres sit at +105 with an average implied total of 4.10 runs. With Ryan’s ability to strike out batters and face a low-strikeout Padres offense, this matchup could tip in favor of Minnesota, especially if they capitalize on their home-field advantage at Target Field.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Jose Iglesias – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)
  Batters such as Jose Iglesias with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Joe Ryan who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the San Diego Padres with a 18.2% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Joe Ryan – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Joe Ryan has utilized his off-speed and breaking balls 7.8% less often this season (37.8%) than he did last season (45.6%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Matt Wallner – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Matt Wallner has big-time HR ability (99th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s usually a big “IF” (31.4% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher David Morgan has a pitch-to-contact profile (6th percentile K%) — great news for Wallner.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Minnesota Twins – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Minnesota Twins’ bullpen grades out as the worst among all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 41 of their last 65 games (+12.30 Units / 16% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 69 of their last 124 games (+11.30 Units / 8% ROI)
• Ryan Jeffers – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+150/-195)
  Ryan Jeffers has hit the Runs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 55% ROI)