Los Angeles Dodgers
Boston Red Sox
(-110/-110)+115
On July 27, 2025, the Boston Red Sox will host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Fenway Park in what promises to be an exciting interleague matchup. Currently, the Red Sox sit at 56-50, showing they are enjoying an above-average season. Meanwhile, the Dodgers are thriving with a record of 61-44, marking them as one of the best teams in MLB. In their previous game, the Dodgers secured a solid victory, further solidifying their place in the standings.
Walker Buehler is set to take the mound for the Red Sox. This season, he has struggled with a 5.72 ERA and a 6-6 record, ranking him as the 220th best starting pitcher in MLB per advanced stats. However, his 4.61 xFIP suggests he may have experienced some bad luck this year, hinting at potential improvement. Buehler’s projections indicate he will pitch around 5.1 innings, allowing approximately 3.2 earned runs and striking out 3.8 batters.
Dustin May will start for the Dodgers, who has an average ERA of 4.73 and also holds a 6-6 record. May’s projections show he might pitch 5.0 innings while allowing 2.9 earned runs and striking out 4.1 batters. While his numbers are decent, they don’t quite match the effectiveness of the Dodgers’ potent offense, which ranks 2nd overall in MLB.
The Red Sox boast a top-tier offense, ranking 5th in MLB, which could provide Buehler with the support he needs. However, the Dodgers’ ability to hit home runs—ranking 2nd in that category—could challenge Buehler’s struggles on the mound.
With an implied total of 10.5 runs, oddsmakers anticipate a high-scoring affair. The Red Sox’s moneyline is set at +115, suggesting bettors see this as a close contest. Given the Dodgers’ overall offensive prowess and elite bullpen, they may have the edge, making this matchup one to watch closely.
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Teoscar Hernandez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)Teoscar Hernandez’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 96.3-mph figure last year has decreased to 93.1-mph.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H MoneylineThe Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen profiles as the 7th-best in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Boston Red Sox Insights
- Walker Buehler – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Walker Buehler has used his non-fastballs 5.9% more often this season (60.6%) than he did last year (54.7%).Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Wilyer Abreu – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)Wilyer Abreu is an extreme flyball batter and faces the weak outfield defense of Los Angeles (#2-worst on the slate).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)Jarren Duran has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.3%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the league’s shallowest LF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (+115)The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 38 games (+10.45 Units / 20% ROI)
- Los Angeles Dodgers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-125/-105)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 21 away games (+4.70 Units / 19% ROI)
- Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 2.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+105/-135)Freddie Freeman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+11.30 Units / 42% ROI)