Los Angeles Dodgers
Boston Red Sox
(-110/-110)-110
As the Boston Red Sox prepare to face the Los Angeles Dodgers on July 27, 2025, the stakes are high in this Interleague showdown at Fenway Park. Both teams are coming off an intriguing previous encounter, where the Red Sox edged out the Dodgers with a 4-2 victory on July 26. The matchup marks the third game in their series and features two teams with contrasting recent performances.
The Red Sox, currently sitting with a record of 56-50, are having an above-average season, bolstered by the 6th best offense in MLB. Their run production has been a key factor, especially against a Dodgers team that ranks 2nd in overall offense. However, the Dodgers, with a stronger season record of 61-44, are well-positioned, showcasing high upside with their offensive capabilities, including a league-leading home run count.
On the mound, the Red Sox are set to start Walker Buehler, who has struggled this season with a Win/Loss record of 6-6 and an alarming ERA of 5.72. Despite this, projections suggest he may have been unlucky based on his 4.61 xFIP, indicating potential for improvement. In contrast, the Dodgers will hand the ball to Dustin May, who holds an average ERA of 4.73 and also boasts a 6-6 record.
Given the Red Sox’s strong offensive rank and their home-field advantage, plus the potential for Buehler to turn his season around, they could very well outperform their current moneyline of -110, which implies a 50% win probability. Both teams are expected to score heavily, as indicated by the Game Total set at 10.0 runs, making this matchup one to watch for both fans and bettors alike.
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Miguel Rojas – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+165/-215)Miguel Rojas has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 89.2-mph average to last year’s 86.6-mph figure.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H MoneylineThe Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen profiles as the 2nd-best in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Boston Red Sox Insights
- Walker Buehler – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Walker Buehler has used his non-fastballs 5.9% more often this season (60.6%) than he did last year (54.7%).Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Wilyer Abreu – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)Wilyer Abreu is an extreme flyball batter and faces the weak outfield defense of Los Angeles (#2-worst on the slate).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)Jarren Duran has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.5%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the league’s shallowest LF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (-110)The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 38 games (+10.45 Units / 20% ROI)
- Los Angeles Dodgers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 21 away games (+4.70 Units / 19% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+590/-1100)Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games at home (+11.90 Units / 149% ROI)