Get the Injury Report for Royals vs Mariners – Thursday July 3rd, 2025

Kansas City Royals

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Seattle Mariners

As the Seattle Mariners prepare to face the Kansas City Royals on July 3, 2025, both teams come into this matchup with contrasting seasons. The Mariners stand at 45-41, enjoying an above-average year, while the Royals sit at 40-47, struggling to find their rhythm. This game marks the fourth encounter between the two clubs in this series, and the Mariners won their last matchup 3-2 on July 2.

On the mound, Seattle will send Logan Evans, a right-handed pitcher with a mixed track record this season. Evans has a Win/Loss record of 3-2 and a solid ERA of 3.38. However, his xFIP of 4.25 suggests that he may have been fortunate so far, and he projects to allow 2.4 earned runs while striking out only 4.0 batters on average today. Facing him is Seth Lugo, who has been the more effective pitcher for Kansas City. Lugo boasts an impressive ERA of 2.74 and a solid Win/Loss record of 5-5. He’s coming off a strong performance in which he pitched 6 innings with no earned runs.

The Mariners’ offense ranks as the 11th best in MLB this season and is particularly potent in hitting home runs, sitting at 6th in the league. In contrast, the Royals’ offense has struggled significantly, ranking 28th overall and dead last in home runs. This stark difference may play a crucial role in the outcome of the game.

With the Mariners’ top hitters performing at a high level recently, including a surge in production over the past week, they will look to capitalize on their offensive strengths against a Royals team that has shown vulnerability. The projections suggest that the Mariners could have a slight edge, despite the betting lines indicating a close contest, making this matchup one to watch closely.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Seth Lugo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Out of all SPs, Seth Lugo’s fastball velocity of 91.3 mph is in the 23rd percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Kyle Isbel – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Kyle Isbel is likely to have an edge against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Salvador Perez pulls many of his flyballs (37% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 8th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Logan Evans – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Given that flyball pitchers are hit hardest by groundball hitters, Logan Evans (43.7% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 2 GB hitters in Kansas City’s projected offense.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Cal Raleigh has been lucky this year, compiling a .421 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .355 — a .066 gap.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Logan Evans – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Projected catcher Cal Raleigh grades out as an elite pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 45 of their last 78 games (+12.20 Units / 14% ROI)
• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 49 of their last 70 games (+26.65 Units / 32% ROI)
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Cal Raleigh has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+9.20 Units / 40% ROI)