Get the Injury Report for Royals vs Mariners – Thursday July 3rd, 2025

Kansas City Royals

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Seattle Mariners

As the Seattle Mariners prepare to face the Kansas City Royals on July 3, 2025, both teams come into this matchup with contrasting seasons. The Mariners stand at 45-41, enjoying an above-average year, while the Royals sit at 40-47, struggling to find their rhythm. This game marks the fourth encounter between the two clubs in this series, and the Mariners won their last matchup 3-2 on July 2.

On the mound, Seattle will send Logan Evans, a right-handed pitcher with a mixed track record this season. Evans has a Win/Loss record of 3-2 and a solid ERA of 3.38. However, his xFIP of 4.25 suggests that he may have been fortunate so far, and he projects to allow 2.4 earned runs while striking out only 4.0 batters on average today. Facing him is Seth Lugo, who has been the more effective pitcher for Kansas City. Lugo boasts an impressive ERA of 2.74 and a solid Win/Loss record of 5-5. He’s coming off a strong performance in which he pitched 6 innings with no earned runs.

The Mariners’ offense ranks as the 11th best in MLB this season and is particularly potent in hitting home runs, sitting at 6th in the league. In contrast, the Royals’ offense has struggled significantly, ranking 28th overall and dead last in home runs. This stark difference may play a crucial role in the outcome of the game.

With the Mariners’ top hitters performing at a high level recently, including a surge in production over the past week, they will look to capitalize on their offensive strengths against a Royals team that has shown vulnerability. The projections suggest that the Mariners could have a slight edge, despite the betting lines indicating a close contest, making this matchup one to watch closely.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Kansas City Royals – Moneyline (+100)
  The Kansas City Royals outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-strongest out of all the teams on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Kyle Isbel – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Kyle Isbel’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 90-mph figure last year has dropped to 87.7-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Salvador Perez pulls many of his flyballs (37% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 8th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Logan Evans – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Given that flyball pitchers are hit hardest by groundball hitters, Logan Evans (43.7% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 2 GB hitters in Kansas City’s projected offense.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Cal Raleigh is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Kansas City (#3-best of the day).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Logan Evans – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Projected catcher Cal Raleigh grades out as an elite pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 45 of their last 78 games (+12.20 Units / 14% ROI)
• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 49 of their last 70 games (+26.65 Units / 32% ROI)
• Jac Caglianone – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+110/-140)
  Jac Caglianone has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.35 Units / 48% ROI)