Get the Injury Report for Mets vs Marlins – Wednesday April 2nd, 2025

New York Mets

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Miami Marlins

On April 2, 2025, the Miami Marlins will host the New York Mets at LoanDepot Park for the third game of their series. The Marlins currently hold a record of 4-2, marking a solid start to the season, while the Mets sit at 2-3, struggling to find their rhythm. In their previous matchup, the Marlins managed to secure a victory, which could provide them with momentum heading into this game.

Miami’s Connor Gillispie is projected to take the mound, but his early season performance has been lackluster. With a Win/Loss record of 0-1 and an ERA of 5.40, he ranks as the 282nd best starting pitcher in MLB. His projections suggest he’ll pitch around 4.4 innings while allowing approximately 3.0 earned runs, which doesn’t bode well against a Mets offense that, despite its struggles, still has potential.

On the other hand, New York’s Clay Holmes, who is expected to start, has shown more promise with a 0-1 record and a solid 3.86 ERA. Holmes is ranked 27th among MLB starters, and his projections indicate he could go about 5.7 innings, allowing just 2.2 earned runs. This matchup presents a clear advantage for the Mets on the mound.

Offensively, both teams have underperformed this season, ranking 29th and 33rd in MLB for their respective batting lineups. However, the Marlins have a slight edge in recent form, as their best hitter has been hot, boasting a .348 batting average over the past week. With Miami positioned as a significant underdog at +165, there may be value in considering them, especially if their recent momentum carries into this game. The total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating a potentially close contest as both teams look to find their footing early in the season.

New York Mets Insights

• Clay Holmes – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Because groundball pitchers have a substantial advantage over groundball bats, Clay Holmes and his 59.1% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a favorable position in this matchup being matched up with 3 opposing GB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Mark Vientos has a ton of pop (94th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s usually a big “IF” (28.3% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Connor Gillispie is a pitch-to-contact type (20th percentile K%) — great news for Vientos.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Mark Vientos hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 6th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Connor Gillispie – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Connor Gillispie in the 18th percentile when estimating his strikeout ability.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Otto Lopez – Over/Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (+470/-800)
  Otto Lopez’s speed has declined this season. His 28.72 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 28.13 ft/sec now.
  Explain: Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can’t beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.
• The Miami Marlins have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kyle Stowers, Matt Mervis, Griffin Conine).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 40 games at home (+18.25 Units / 41% ROI)
• New York Mets – Moneyline (-205)
  The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 75 of their last 125 games (+18.95 Units / 12% ROI)
• Javier Sanoja – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Javier Sanoja has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+8.10 Units / 66% ROI)