Get Recommended Player Prop Bets for Brewers vs Mets – Tuesday, July 01, 2025

Milwaukee Brewers

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New York Mets

As the Milwaukee Brewers visit Citi Field on July 1, 2025, both teams find themselves in a competitive division race, with the New York Mets holding a record of 48-37 and the Brewers at 47-37. This important matchup marks the first game in the series, and given the close standings, both clubs are eager to gain an edge.

In their most recent outings, the Mets have been on a solid run, showcasing their offensive prowess as they contend for playoff positioning. The Mets currently rank 6th in MLB in offense, and with a moneyline set at -130, they are projected to score an impressive 4.45 runs against a Brewers team that has struggled offensively, ranking 18th overall.

On the mound, the Mets are set to start Clay Holmes, who has been effective this season with a Win/Loss record of 8-4 and an impressive ERA of 2.97. However, his xFIP of 3.97 suggests he might face challenges moving forward. Holmes’s projections indicate he will pitch about 5.5 innings, allowing around 2.2 earned runs, which could be enough to quiet the Brewers’ offense, ranked just 18th in the league.

Opposing him is Freddy Peralta, who boasts a slightly better Power Ranking at 39th among pitchers. Although he has a comparable record of 8-4 and an excellent ERA of 2.90, his projections indicate he may also struggle, with expectations of allowing 2.8 earned runs in 5.2 innings.

With both teams having solid pitching, especially on the Mets’ side, the outcome may hinge on the offense. As the projections imply an edge for the Mets despite their lackluster batting average ranking at 18th, this clash is shaping up to be a pivotal moment in their season. Bettors should keep a close eye on how these dynamics unfold.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Freddy Peralta – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Freddy Peralta’s 2448-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 86th percentile among all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Isaac Collins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Isaac Collins has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.4-mph dropping to 81.3-mph in the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Rhys Hoskins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Rhys Hoskins pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.3% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Mets Insights

• Clay Holmes – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Considering that groundball pitchers have a notable advantage over groundball hitters, Clay Holmes and his 56% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a favorable spot in today’s game facing 4 opposing GB hitters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Brett Baty – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Extreme groundball batters like Brett Baty usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Freddy Peralta.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• New York Mets – Moneyline (-130)
  The 5th-best projected batting order of the day in terms of overall offensive ability is that of the the New York Mets.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Moneyline (-130)
  The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 38 games at home (+6.95 Units / 10% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 39 away games (+12.27 Units / 26% ROI)
• Joseph Ortiz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Joseph Ortiz has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+6.50 Units / 25% ROI)