Get Insights on the Score Prediction for Giants vs Royals Match – Sunday, September 22, 2024

San Francisco Giants

@

Kansas City Royals

As the Kansas City Royals and San Francisco Giants gear up for the final game of their series on September 22, 2024, both teams find themselves in different positions. The Royals, with an 82-73 record, are enjoying an above-average season, while the Giants sit at 76-79, reflecting a more average performance. Both teams have slim playoff hopes, making this game crucial. Yesterday, the Giants dominated the Royals with a 9-0 shutout, showcasing their potential to upset the home team.

On the mound, Kansas City will start Seth Lugo, who has been solid this season with a 16-8 record and a 3.05 ERA. However, his peripherals suggest he might have been a bit fortunate, as his 3.85 xFIP indicates. Lugo’s projection today shows some challenges, particularly with allowing hits and walks, which could be a concern against a Giants lineup that has been hot lately, led by Michael Conforto’s impressive week.

The Giants counter with Blake Snell, an elite pitcher ranked 15th in MLB, according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Despite a modest 4-3 record, Snell’s 3.31 ERA and 2.54 FIP suggest he’s been unlucky, and projections indicate he could shine against the Royals. Snell’s high strikeout ability, evidenced by his 12-strikeout performance in his last outing, will be tested against a Royals offense that ranks 2nd in strikeout avoidance.

Offensively, the Royals have been average, ranking 14th in overall offense but 7th in batting average. Bobby Witt Jr. continues to be a standout performer for Kansas City. Meanwhile, the Giants’ offense ranks 21st, but the recent contributions from Conforto and Matt Chapman could provide the spark they need.

The betting markets see this as a tight matchup, with both teams at -110, implying a 50% win probability. However, the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, gives the Giants a slight edge with a 53% win probability, suggesting they might have the upper hand in this critical game.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Blake Snell – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to the average starter, Blake Snell has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an extra 7.0 adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Mike Yastrzemski has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (75% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Matt Chapman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Matt Chapman hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 97th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game’s 4th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Seth Lugo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Seth Lugo’s higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this season (56.4% vs. 48.2% last season) ought to work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Kyle Isbel – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Kyle Isbel has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 98.5-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 88.2-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Kansas City Royals (20.6 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 4th-least strikeout-prone team of hitters of all teams on the slate.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 6.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games (+8.15 Units / 33% ROI)
• Over/Under 6.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 24 away games (+7.30 Units / 28% ROI)
• Jerar Encarnacion – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+660/-1300)
  Jerar Encarnacion has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 away games (+8.80 Units / 220% ROI)